Lol · resolved market
League of Legends: Cloud9 vs. Shopify Rebellion
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47df08d03989329492e18a6de4d9c2e73a4337841c6b03006686ee518a5d57c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shopify Rebellionof Cloud9, Shopify Rebellion
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4337…8882backed Shopify Rebellion | 14c | 6,798$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,846.19 | 1,098 | 34.8%382 W · 716 L | -17.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Shopify Rebellion | 15c | 5,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,250 | 637 | 46.5%296 W · 341 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Cloud9 | 54c | 4,503$2,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,432.99 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Shopify Rebellion | 25c | 3,148$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,361.91 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…ea34backed Shopify Rebellion | 69c | 1,812$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.28 | 507 | 70%355 W · 152 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Shopify Rebellion | 37c | 1,808$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.61 | 435 | 39.5%172 W · 263 L | -24.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Shopify Rebellion | 14c | 1,481$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,278.57 | 924 | 50.9%470 W · 454 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Shopify Rebellion | 42c | 1,005$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.84 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…60e7backed Shopify Rebellion | 12c | 906.33$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.69 | 168 | 28.6%48 W · 120 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Shopify Rebellion | 15c | 731$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.4 | 2,240 | 37.3%836 W · 1,404 L | -31.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee3…58b2backed Shopify Rebellion | 55c | 520.14$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.78 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Shopify Rebellion | 12c | 517.38$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.57 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Shopify Rebellion | 13c | 477$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.99 | 1,611 | 48.4%780 W · 831 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Cloud9 | 53c | 365$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.45 | 354 | 31.1%110 W · 244 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Shopify Rebellion | 24c | 364.87$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.44 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Shopify Rebellion | 42c | 350$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.5 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Cloud9 | 77c | 331.74$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.36 | 1,356 | 51.1%693 W · 663 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Shopify Rebellion | 16c | 316.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.29 | 850 | 46%391 W · 459 L | -11.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d2…4f20backed Shopify Rebellion | 7c | 300$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Cloud9 | 76c | 264.47$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 153 | 70.6%108 W · 45 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Cloud9 | 60c | 258.55$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.32 | 538 | 29.4%158 W · 380 L | -13.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Shopify Rebellion | 40c | 238.85$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.46 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6254…d8b7backed Shopify Rebellion | 37c | 235.42$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.97 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed Shopify Rebellion | 15c | 219.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.28 | 1,144 | 63.3%724 W · 420 L | +53.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…e969backed Shopify Rebellion | 40c | 203.1$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.23 | 1,246 | 52.6%656 W · 590 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3de…eea7backed Cloud9 | 33c | 200.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.75 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9e…7047backed Shopify Rebellion | 6c | 195$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +124%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Shopify Rebellion | 56c | 184.09$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.51 | 1,155 | 68.1%786 W · 369 L | +35.1wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3f…676cbacked Cloud9 | 50c | 171.67$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.48 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Shopify Rebellion | 15c | 133.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.32 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e9…c21ebacked Cloud9 | 55c | 94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Shopify Rebellion | 14c | 80.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 441 | 28.1%124 W · 317 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Shopify Rebellion | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 364 | 33.8%123 W · 241 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7752…445dbacked Shopify Rebellion | 29c | 62.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b26…6900backed Shopify Rebellion | 49c | 60.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…2e90backed Cloud9 | 29c | 52.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…5ccebacked Cloud9 | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Shopify Rebellion | 33c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.