MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies winning after 5 innings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47ed054fa21792202adec9d6df586c32d3bc979a9cfa9835d03a4f479e49f8ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked No | 43c | 5,269$2,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,003.23 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…5974backed Yes | 57c | 2,632$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 222 | 57.2%127 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed Yes | 57c | 1,228$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 189 | 58.7%111 W · 78 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf531…121cbacked Yes | 61c | 1,188$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Yes | 61c | 1,178$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.49 | 150 | 44%66 W · 84 L | -16.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked No | 42c | 1,158$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.62 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 60c | 999.86$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.93 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed No | 41c | 976.13$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.13 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Yes | 57c | 877$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.89 | 205 | 55.6%114 W · 91 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed Yes | 50c | 600$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 39c | 572.36$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.14 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed No | 40c | 500.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 39c | 477.19$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.09 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +31.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x518f…cf91backed No | 39c | 443.59$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 58c | 390$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.43 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed Yes | 57c | 228.07$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 288 | 51%147 W · 141 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 56c | 178.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.23 | 1,141 | 46.3%528 W · 613 L | +36.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked Yes | 57c | 175$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 41c | 150.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.94 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb603…c701backed No | 44c | 147.86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 40c | 101$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.59 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked Yes | 57c | 78.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511a…f43fbacked Yes | 57c | 75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…3d27backed Yes | 60c | 73.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 41c | 54.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 55c | 45.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…df57backed Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 226 | 57.1%129 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Yes | 58c | 34.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…d888backed Yes | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c9…9aaebacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.