Fifa International · resolved market
Nigeria vs. Mozambique: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48183d51fab66611dd0c18bd4c02053b960d3c2791c1f5a89d8263d0c18549f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $135,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $186,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 68c | 46,496$31,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,896.47 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 32c | 20,839$6,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,744.59 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 31c | 11,491$3,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,512.18 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 34c | 6,186$2,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,082.92 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 22c | 5,056$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.64 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d76…9168backed Over | 32c | 3,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.99 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 47c | 2,352$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.51 | 145 | 42.1%61 W · 84 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf426…5181backed Over | 2c | 2,267$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 35c | 2,105$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.78 | 293 | 43%126 W · 167 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5df…382dbacked Over | 35c | 1,982$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.41 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6948…b971backed Over | 21c | 1,723$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…a6efbacked Over | 21c | 1,066$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.57 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +182.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Under | 78c | 999.97$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.01 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Over | 46c | 942$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.82 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed Over | 34c | 900$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5995…53b3backed Under | 61c | 626.23$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1d…820cbacked Under | 66c | 454.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.55 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 58c | 400$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Over | 22c | 388.27$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.42 | 114 | 31.6%36 W · 78 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 64c | 387.1$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.47 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 22c | 344.8$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.02 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c80…aa9abacked Over | 36c | 326.38$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.35 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 23c | 304.59$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 113 | 31%35 W · 78 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…8f18backed Under | 69c | 289.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…7181backed Over | 44c | 228.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0742…39a7backed Under | 69c | 181.68$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.24 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…a65dbacked Over | 38c | 179.84$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.97 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed Under | 62c | 169.77$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.66 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1974…bc18backed Over | 42c | 167.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d40…4e09backed Under | 76c | 164.24$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 17c | 147.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…15e5backed Under | 68c | 147.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Over | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Over | 50c | 145$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.27 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x115c…1e85backed Under | 74c | 143.06$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…85f3backed Over | 40c | 124.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae04…7411backed Under | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea93…d9bdbacked Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…f9b4backed Under | 67c | 91.18$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Under | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bd…2bf8backed Over | 36c | 79.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Over | 27c | 69.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 166 | 29.5%49 W · 117 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14f5…eb92backed Over | 31c | 67.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…5729backed Over | 34c | 65.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Over | 22c | 64.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 341 | 2.9%10 W · 331 L | -132.4wins | -0.39per pick | 42cpaid | -94%equal weight | 10-0.36 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…21a1backed Under | 59c | 57.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 108 | 68.5%74 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Over | 33c | 47.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad3e…5905backed Over | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Over | 32c | 42.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 163 | 31.9%52 W · 111 L | -11.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0989…5247backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf527…bb0bbacked Over | 29c | 37.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc806…ade6backed Over | 36c | 34.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…8cbdbacked Under | 60c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd6…2212backed Under | 76c | 33.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Under | 74c | 31.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…ceeabacked Under | 68c | 30.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca7…6e6ebacked Over | 36c | 28.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a0…511ebacked Under | 75c | 25.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…7a49backed Under | 69c | 18.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…c25fbacked Under | 79c | 17.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 79c | 17.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…b87ebacked Under | 74c | 17.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nigeria vs. Mozambique: O/U 4.5this page
- Nigeria vs. Mozambique: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Nigeria vs. Mozambique: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nigeria vs. Mozambique: O/U 2.5Over won
- Nigeria vs. Mozambique: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.