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Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: NS (-2.5) vs BNK FEARX (+2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BNK FEARXof Nongshim Red Force, BNK FEARX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,469
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,498

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,469 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac23…a875backed Nongshim Red Force31c6,747$2,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,102.155349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde67…bab9backed BNK FEARX69c4,546$3,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,41514952.3%78 W · 71 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed BNK FEARX69c1,894$1,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.239448%189 W · 205 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f58…d93abacked BNK FEARX68c864$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2776653%35 W · 31 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed BNK FEARX73c855.5$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.6774541.1%306 W · 439 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Nongshim Red Force36c852.94$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.721,48938.4%572 W · 917 L-44.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed BNK FEARX74c770.83$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.251,04254.8%571 W · 471 L+52.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Nongshim Red Force19c713.95$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.6549432.8%162 W · 332 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Nongshim Red Force30c615.34$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.73,06644.6%1,366 W · 1,700 L-97.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6392…52ddbacked Nongshim Red Force14c405.36$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3744948.8%219 W · 230 L+17.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x179d…26abbacked Nongshim Red Force31c320$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.255329.7%164 W · 389 L-21.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e8a…61c3backed BNK FEARX63c257.94$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.864158.5%24 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Nongshim Red Force35c255$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.352,57247.2%1,215 W · 1,357 L-36.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Nongshim Red Force18c201.9$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.342,60839.7%1,035 W · 1,573 L-84.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x91bc…28d6backed BNK FEARX68c176.47$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4721758.1%126 W · 91 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd799…8929backed BNK FEARX69c117.54$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.443100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+62.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cf1…d7febacked Nongshim Red Force18c116.51$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5212834.4%44 W · 84 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8d3…c0d1backed Nongshim Red Force17c114.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2027150.2%136 W · 135 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12dc…9832backed Nongshim Red Force16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169841.8%41 W · 57 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbdf…b8a0backed BNK FEARX69c82.27$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.511251.8%58 W · 54 L-9.6wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-16.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Nongshim Red Force18c80$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.41,39849.4%691 W · 707 L-20.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked BNK FEARX77c68.54$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5835250.3%177 W · 175 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbed4…f891backed Nongshim Red Force19c64.77$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1252247.3%247 W · 275 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x722f…c00fbacked BNK FEARX74c62.99$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.21944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick66cpaid-34.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd533…d6a1backed Nongshim Red Force34c60.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2147041.3%194 W · 276 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1df…245ebacked Nongshim Red Force32c47.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0796253.4%514 W · 448 L+18.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d8b…e621backed BNK FEARX68c40.35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.913565.7%23 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c3…f821backed BNK FEARX79c36.67$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.557055.7%39 W · 31 L-0.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b7c…4394backed BNK FEARX68c29.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.413669.4%25 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.