Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd04139d9d30a050577cff7b5c54b528573f764d4d3741cf0e3d2dcbb536fdfa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d78…29a5backed Over | 51c | 6,233$3,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,084.82 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c4…1018backed Under | 49c | 3,114$1,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,532.42 | 357 | 51.5%184 W · 173 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed Under | 47c | 2,575$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.18 | 1,353 | 38.6%522 W · 831 L | -68.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Over | 53c | 1,937$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.35 | 2,202 | 53.5%1,178 W · 1,024 L | +63.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Over | 47c | 1,793$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.45 | 1,517 | 50.6%767 W · 750 L | +75.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 49c | 1,719$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.38 | 1,206 | 44.7%539 W · 667 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…da36backed Under | 53c | 1,201$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Under | 50c | 1,118$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Under | 52c | 1,000$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.89 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Under | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 920 | 37.5%345 W · 575 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 50c | 855.22$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.61 | 2,608 | 39.7%1,035 W · 1,573 L | -84.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…782bbacked Over | 53c | 852$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.01 | 1,548 | 54.8%849 W · 699 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…2152backed Under | 48c | 655.87$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.96 | 78 | 37.2%29 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Under | 48c | 507.51$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.6 | 355 | 40%142 W · 213 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 50c | 494.35$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.52 | 1,213 | 39.6%480 W · 733 L | -44.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 996 | 50.2%500 W · 496 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0160…1224backed Under | 48c | 397.05$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.71 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Under | 51c | 390.53$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.17 | 443 | 42.9%190 W · 253 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5f…555ebacked Under | 51c | 296.47$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3776…e17abacked Under | 50c | 294$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf247…d8cabacked Over | 51c | 292.47$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.67 | 228 | 57%130 W · 98 L | +21.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 51c | 209.9$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.95 | 923 | 51%471 W · 452 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +9.4wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Over | 53c | 188.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.67 | 240 | 48.8%117 W · 123 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…a93bbacked Over | 54c | 180.51$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.74 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 52c | 178.31$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.72 | 1,666 | 43.9%732 W · 934 L | -76.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0b…2debbacked Under | 49c | 124.49$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…e21dbacked Under | 50c | 104$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,040 | 46.8%487 W · 553 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 269 | 52%140 W · 129 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb95c…4140backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0626…4426backed Under | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdccf…faeabacked Under | 49c | 81.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 1,398 | 49.4%691 W · 707 L | -20.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 49c | 64.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 352 | 50.3%177 W · 175 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf3…d220backed Over | 52c | 47.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Under | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 1,412 | 44.8%633 W · 779 L | -15.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Under | 48c | 43.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 187 | 41.7%78 W · 109 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 49c | 41.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…5badbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…ac54backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 363 | 49.3%179 W · 184 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c33…e0dabacked Under | 48c | 26.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?this page
- Game Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5)BNK FEARX won
- Game Handicap: NS (-2.5) vs BNK FEARX (+2.5)BNK FEARX won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Play-InBNK FEARX won
- LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 WinnerNongshim Red Force won
- LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 WinnerBNK FEARX won
- LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 WinnerBNK FEARX won
- LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX - Game 4 WinnerBNK FEARX won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.