MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4841487bb9ca268980bb6d84b0f6c83571089553acd8c73fb550eef1a2d5cb00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 49c | 8,258$4,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,176.02 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 7,605$3,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,876.96 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 1,036$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.36 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 49c | 763.76$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.43 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 32c | 466.66$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.33 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 47c | 396$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.14 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 48c | 330.4$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.81 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 56c | 314.03$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.08 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Under | 63c | 290$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.09 | 132 | 64.4%85 W · 47 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 60c | 236$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.42 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Under | 55c | 206.35$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.44 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Over | 37c | 175.34$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.16 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 35c | 169.36$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.55 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 54c | 131$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 59c | 113.89$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 67c | 99.46$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.21 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 56c | 94.63$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 56c | 89.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 56c | 89.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 41c | 76.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 74.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 27c | 73.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 44c | 72.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Under | 55c | 70.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Under | 59c | 70.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 39c | 70.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 49c | 64.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Under | 56c | 60.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Under | 50c | 57.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 52c | 56.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 28c | 55.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Over | 46c | 54.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 49.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 40c | 45.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Under | 49c | 38.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 29c | 34.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 58c | 34.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 59c | 27.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 76c | 24.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…e409backed Under | 54c | 24.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Over | 73c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 162 | 74.1%120 W · 42 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 62c | 22.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Under | 54c | 20.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…b749backed Under | 61c | 19.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 76c | 15.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.