MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x540a347c211430c3fdabf6082281048435a2602a768c531e2c80985b96f85910
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 26c | 8,386$2,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,180.28 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 74c | 7,760$5,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,016.64 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 48c | 5,115$2,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650.05 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 49c | 3,218$1,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,641.06 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 2,719$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365.13 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Over | 52c | 2,385$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240.32 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed Under | 48c | 1,979$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.17 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 1,907$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.43 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 1,806$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.59 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 51c | 1,705$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.55 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 50c | 1,548$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.8 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 61c | 1,429$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.9 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 52c | 1,117$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.92 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 52c | 840$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 52c | 745.33$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.57 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 48c | 686.71$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.09 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 49c | 325.16$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.83 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 22c | 290.81$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 51c | 286.33$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.03 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…cc6bbacked Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Under | 78c | 134.38$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 22c | 131.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 38c | 130.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 43c | 102.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16f3…e1eebacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 47c | 97.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 74c | 92.43$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 35c | 89.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 16c | 83.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 20c | 77.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 49c | 77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Over | 52c | 72.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Under | 79c | 66.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Over | 39c | 62.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Under | 74c | 56.76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 47c | 54.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Under | 74c | 41.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x616a…8339backed Under | 48c | 41.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +49%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1952…dbf9backed Over | 51c | 38.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 52c | 38.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 63c | 36.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5894…c28ebacked Under | 74c | 30.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Over | 55c | 27.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511d…3633backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Over | 53c | 22.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 61c | 21.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 55c | 20.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 54c | 19.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…e409backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.