Music · resolved market
Will "The Sin: Bliss" - ENHYPEN first week album sales be between 100k and 120k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x486f64dcc9e768717aefb2fce16ff44368ae60437a5a5507b66f96a5915f0d90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2128…f203backed Yes | 31c | 805.81$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +158.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 53c | 431.05$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.28 | 153 | 62.1%95 W · 58 L | +12.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…422abacked No | 3c | 389.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 49c | 303.74$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.23 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd570…b90abacked No | 64c | 224.19$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.48 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 38c | 220.48$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.02 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 69c | 148.94$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.49 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 29c | 133$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 30c | 125$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 39c | 124.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 24c | 113.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 107.89$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 69c | 95.15$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.85 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7b…08aebacked No | 30c | 82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 45c | 72.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 233 | 39.5%92 W · 141 L | -13.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 72c | 61.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 50.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 166 | 33.7%56 W · 110 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.7wins | -0.55per pick | 75cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf6…c582backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 63c | 46.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.36per pick | 58cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bb…a884backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…9292backed No | 60c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 70c | 20.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce98…5614backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Sin: Bliss" - ENHYPEN first week album sales be between 100k and 120k?this page
- Will "The Sin: Bliss" - ENHYPEN first week album sales be between 120k and 140k?No won
- Will "The Sin: Bliss" - ENHYPEN first week album sales be between 80k and 100k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.