TailMyPicks

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Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Team Vitality vs Enterprise Esports - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Enterprise Esportsof Team Vitality, Enterprise Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$106,080
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$108,256

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,080 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe911…3d4ebacked Team Vitality18c13,274$2,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,369.191,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Enterprise Esports46c11,405$5,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,179.3356357.9%326 W · 237 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Enterprise Esports46c6,865$3,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,709.2253355.3%295 W · 238 L+24.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Vitality66c5,097$3,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,370.953159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Team Vitality59c3,664$2,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,170.197640.8%31 W · 45 L-14.7wins-0.19per pick60cpaid-38.6%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Vitality70c3,647$2,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,536.6165559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Enterprise Esports30c1,946$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,357.2378562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked Enterprise Esports80c1,500$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.1913741.6%57 W · 80 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2eba…0f3abacked Enterprise Esports34c1,431$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.3719751.8%102 W · 95 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Team Vitality16c1,391$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.166438.1%253 W · 411 L-31.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86df…d902backed Enterprise Esports30c1,207$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.9513355.6%74 W · 59 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid0%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Team Vitality65c1,147$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.3763955.6%355 W · 284 L+1.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85fb…89babacked Enterprise Esports28c1,140$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.797443.2%32 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Enterprise Esports54c1,083$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.7440945.7%187 W · 222 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd75a…d264backed Team Vitality17c1,025$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.256930.4%21 W · 48 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-33.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Enterprise Esports29c1,000$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71041734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2bb…3250backed Enterprise Esports80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2002850%14 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Enterprise Esports29c999.97$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.9818143.6%79 W · 102 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Vitality69c945.48$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.3168458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Vitality27c878$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.771,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc186…e96ebacked Enterprise Esports80c750$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa514…9c8fbacked Enterprise Esports80c750$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd786…59b8backed Team Vitality51c683.54$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.613627.8%10 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-42.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9279…4748backed Enterprise Esports33c657.89$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.996462.5%40 W · 24 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x270e…53cabacked Team Vitality77c649.74$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Enterprise Esports35c568.69$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.6526447.3%125 W · 139 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0328…bd17backed Team Vitality72c555.56$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4007456.8%42 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed Team Vitality40c526.85$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.0360022.7%136 W · 464 L-26.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Enterprise Esports33c516.36$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.3625336.4%92 W · 161 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x859d…1861backed Enterprise Esports20c515.94$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.94450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+74.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Vitality66c488$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.4393148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Enterprise Esports30c443.71$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.653442.1%225 W · 309 L-15.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Enterprise Esports30c426.76$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.7446347.1%218 W · 245 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcda7…af42backed Team Vitality71c422.54$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004860.4%29 W · 19 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf490…63afbacked Enterprise Esports46c417.1$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.246636.4%24 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe638…40e6backed Team Vitality42c399.98$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.79812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.32per pick44cpaid-72.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf247…d8cabacked Team Vitality67c394.21$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.562339.1%9 W · 14 L-3.7wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Vitality37c394$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.4281134.9%283 W · 528 L-60.9wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed Team Vitality70c393.1$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.177164.8%46 W · 25 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+21.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Enterprise Esports80c375$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756456.3%36 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked Team Vitality13c360$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.822539.1%88 W · 137 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Enterprise Esports36c353$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.9228143.4%122 W · 159 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c2f…d8c2backed Team Vitality60c328.72$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.172544%11 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Vitality20c269.71$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6868949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5008…9466backed Team Vitality47c269.56$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.914434.1%15 W · 29 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-37.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaeb1…d11ebacked Team Vitality54c261.41$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+41.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa62b…58aabacked Enterprise Esports27c260.47$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.983943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7b8…31e6backed Enterprise Esports29c258.32$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.6436145.7%165 W · 196 L+22.8wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Enterprise Esports30c252.52$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.41,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf348…e543backed Team Vitality67c244.16$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.997455.4%41 W · 33 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2460…e144backed Team Vitality70c228.57$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16028151.6%145 W · 136 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…f7dbbacked Team Vitality68c220$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.616241.4%67 W · 95 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x366e…cb0cbacked Team Vitality50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007661.8%47 W · 29 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8feb…63fcbacked Team Vitality41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Team Vitality69c200$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.640254.7%220 W · 182 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6db…25c3backed Enterprise Esports17c191.18$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.183342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae26…fdb3backed Enterprise Esports56c180.75$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.411353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Team Vitality59c176.01$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.531,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Enterprise Esports80c173.63$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.735052%26 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Vitality54c173.2$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.751,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Team Vitality63c170$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.122455.4%124 W · 100 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4281…1a5abacked Team Vitality71c166.6$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.29837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c1e…befebacked Team Vitality66c164.72$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.289145.1%41 W · 50 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-17%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Team Vitality43c164.32$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9990733.1%300 W · 607 L-89.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdcbb…07d9backed Enterprise Esports80c153.86$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.872941.4%12 W · 17 L-6.2wins-0.21per pick63cpaid-35.1%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x33e3…c60fbacked Enterprise Esports27c149.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.333100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+158.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Enterprise Esports46c144.92$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.6338950.6%197 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Enterprise Esports21c137$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.656235.5%22 W · 40 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba58…6d74backed Team Vitality72c135.21$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3525555.7%142 W · 113 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Enterprise Esports53c130$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.726650.8%135 W · 131 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf21d…2e9abacked Team Vitality52c125.59$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5926758.8%157 W · 110 L+18.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Team Vitality46c124.43$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.661,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65c1…2988backed Team Vitality70c116.9$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6325554.9%140 W · 115 L+13.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed Enterprise Esports43c114.31$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.3134253.2%182 W · 160 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked Team Vitality64c111.08$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9322440.2%90 W · 134 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fe0…fb5bbacked Team Vitality71c107.82$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5534954.7%191 W · 158 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e51…2412backed Enterprise Esports30c106.67$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.677745.5%35 W · 42 L+0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4b…69debacked Enterprise Esports29c103.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.4551948.4%251 W · 268 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa521…d609backed Team Vitality50c100.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503363.6%21 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x50ab…70a2backed Team Vitality36c93.84$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.219540%38 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Enterprise Esports41c93.5$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.177853.8%42 W · 36 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+21%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf19…8869backed Enterprise Esports29c91.94$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.944634.8%16 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed Enterprise Esports19c89.12$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.7524140.2%97 W · 144 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca5f…41f5backed Team Vitality59c88.88$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.66457.8%37 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x072e…df3abacked Enterprise Esports29c84.47$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.97875%6 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+58.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3596…d91cbacked Enterprise Esports58c77.34$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.787768.8%53 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Team Vitality40c70.7$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0377744%342 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e9f…3988backed Enterprise Esports31c68.74$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.666454.7%35 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9803…0242backed Team Vitality72c63.63$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8113158%76 W · 55 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69b9…a5d5backed Enterprise Esports80c62.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc714…0566backed Team Vitality56c60$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.62846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fb1…b109backed Enterprise Esports45c59.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3318254.4%99 W · 83 L+22.3wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+27.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa658…f93ebacked Team Vitality70c57.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4027360.1%164 W · 109 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04b7…7491backed Team Vitality69c54.65$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7113848.6%67 W · 71 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cf5…1095backed Enterprise Esports66c49.73$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9111770.9%83 W · 34 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Vitality50c46.56$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.061,37647.1%648 W · 728 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20d7…2485backed Enterprise Esports29c42.07$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.954411.4%5 W · 39 L-6.5wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-62.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5807…74dcbacked Team Vitality72c41.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309455.3%52 W · 42 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a7e…9dc6backed Enterprise Esports55c41$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.546261.3%38 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b81…613dbacked Team Vitality72c40$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.84542.2%19 W · 26 L-8.2wins-0.18per pick60cpaid-32.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.