Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Harry Kane be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x489bfb9597099df16b34140399d2a1517e0a89623dabe94a3fccd4b48cab8bd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 3c | 959.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -45%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 73c | 724.92$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.8 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc876…8711backed No | 2c | 694.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1560…1279backed No | 2c | 638.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 3c | 548.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5090…52d3backed No | 19c | 360.92$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 33c | 307.23$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.07 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 291.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 26c | 290$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +815.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 19c | 213.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked Yes | 67c | 211$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 66c | 108$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 35c | 86.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked Yes | 80c | 79$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…03d2backed No | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba72…143bbacked Yes | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c74…d2d4backed Yes | 65c | 72.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc654…26a8backed Yes | 78c | 51.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 71c | 16.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Harry Kane be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?this page
- Will Andrej Kramaric be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?No won
- Will Deniz Undav be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?No won
- Will Michael Olise be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?No won
- Will Mohammed Amoura be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?No won
- Will Patrik Schick be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?No won
- Will Robert Glatzel be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?No won
- Will Serhou Guirassy be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.