TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,157
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$80,537

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,157 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x690c…6bd7backed Yes0c24,193$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No78c3,154$2,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.5157044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes5c3,008$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.8460851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes20c1,886$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.947834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes1c1,800$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1824710.9%27 W · 220 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31ae…ab5ebacked Yes56c1,016$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.078239%32 W · 50 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-25.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe977…c4d7backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes41c658.63$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.495933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed No67c605.76$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.8727047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes19c571.88$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.162,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4292…0fb8backed Yes59c488.01$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.78837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No44c414.32$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.3769520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd833…ba96backed No43c378.27$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.7812630.2%38 W · 88 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16eb…f55dbacked No48c358.88$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.7475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+57%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes20c347.01$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0610531.4%33 W · 72 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No80c323.32$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.1617243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb261…a612backed Yes48c321.55$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.0110542.9%45 W · 60 L-9.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No58c266.14$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.1163656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No77c238.52$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2261760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No71c214.66$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.842,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b28…5b76backed Yes54c202.63$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11013416.4%22 W · 112 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes25c201.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes42c200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8411436.8%42 W · 72 L-12.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbffa…2abbbacked Yes57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6428718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes6c200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes55c199.97$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.5820631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf84d…5e65backed Yes26c194.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509256.5%52 W · 40 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x812a…6197backed Yes21c191.34$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.755839.7%23 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes45c184.43$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.91,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24da…4c6dbacked No77c179.74$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.243070%21 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes23c156.97$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4327246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1192…634cbacked Yes64c156.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004736.2%17 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e4f…d890backed Yes22c154.08$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.94325.6%11 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f65…d10dbacked Yes40c144.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+44.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb485…f560backed Yes54c128.78$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick42cpaid-73.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb422…b749backed Yes51c115.48$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.631838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes67c112$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1223633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf43c…989bbacked Yes50c111.94$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.132737%10 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6da3…1ccdbacked Yes55c110$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.63831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x078d…c1bfbacked Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-39.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4930813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c99.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes19c99.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4516651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf734…2b7ebacked Yes49c98.02$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.692240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+37.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No56c97.87$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.777,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No59c97.14$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.73,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No42c96.29$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1427079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked Yes24c95.97$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.626828.7%77 W · 191 L-1.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes39c87.35$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3916036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No56c83.7$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.941,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x458d…7fdfbacked Yes75c79.19$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.39250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d81…7edfbacked Yes49c77.66$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.91241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fd6…ac0dbacked Yes58c77.6$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x049f…c09ebacked Yes42c77.38$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.42619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-48.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2742…1f7abacked Yes46c73.12$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7111359.3%67 W · 46 L+17.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+69.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5201…34c3backed Yes66c67$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.226349.2%31 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes30c66.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2025536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No38c66.31$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.982,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e6a…7feebacked No48c64.59$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.872236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes42c64.58$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7552…5845backed Yes37c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.43234.4%11 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92c5…1138backed Yes30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-48.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed No33c53.43$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9955919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae91…e382backed Yes39c52.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.394852.1%25 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9231…b267backed Yes30c52.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.83063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes43c51.21$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.888551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes37c51.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.096258.1%36 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd59d…dcffbacked Yes57c51.02$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.08450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe45…f9a7backed Yes50c50.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+24.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4492…8b9abacked Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d7…72e4backed Yes57c48.4$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.61533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-42.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes37c46$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0226434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed No45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4413946%64 W · 75 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x14e5…441dbacked Yes68c44.12$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x65f9…4425backed No68c44.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.17266.7%48 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67d9…8758backed Yes58c43.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x622e…04ecbacked Yes70c42.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301136.4%4 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.27per pick64cpaid-49.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes57c40.66$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1816520.6%34 W · 131 L+0.3wins0.00per pick20cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes34c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.693034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No43c36.48$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7534457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b99…97e1backed No70c34.67$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cde…5f71backed Yes39c31.73$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef03…1fbfbacked No75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.510956%61 W · 48 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked No35c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.526339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes33c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d54…ee01backed No62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.48072.5%58 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.552935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes40c29.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1211436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa870…2cd1backed No79c29.42$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1817978.8%141 W · 38 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick78cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e80…6910backed Yes60c27.8$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.575560%33 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe43b…c3d0backed Yes65c22.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-35.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No64c22.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2354037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No63c22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.144,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e16…663dbacked No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes63c19.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1256627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x606c…5d56backed Yes63c19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8789…9c0ebacked Yes59c17.49$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.271127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.