Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd497a73c8fd5a850aed27bf5ab51723bcb3b5bffd9dc3a2e6d12c224cca1330b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 37c | 1,044$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.4 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,031$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.63 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ae…ab5ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,008$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.46 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 4c | 999.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 5c | 479.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 455.35$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.06 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 10c | 399.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 30c | 382.61$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.15 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 18c | 364.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed No | 71c | 340.59$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 6c | 322.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 37c | 270.27$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.76 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb485…20a5backed Yes | 19c | 269.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 69c | 266.17$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.15 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f7…7df6backed Yes | 13c | 239.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 19c | 206.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 51c | 196.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 192.41$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 41c | 177.62$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 174.78$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 171.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf291…5fe8backed Yes | 31c | 161.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 158.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f65…d10dbacked Yes | 18c | 146$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73f2…7395backed No | 77c | 139.92$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e7…bda3backed No | 78c | 130.33$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 129.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd391…093fbacked No | 77c | 129.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1192…634cbacked No | 80c | 125.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4f…d890backed Yes | 12c | 124.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…8832backed Yes | 16c | 122.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f0…137abacked Yes | 26c | 113.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…ba96backed No | 65c | 110.29$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 43c | 109.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 46c | 108.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93a1…980ebacked No | 56c | 106.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe734…c535backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 11c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 74c | 94.96$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 24c | 82.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 23c | 80.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…12eabacked No | 79c | 80.61$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…1ccdbacked Yes | 38c | 78.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d81…7edfbacked Yes | 22c | 77.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked No | 79c | 75.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 14c | 74.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 32c | 70.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked No | 78c | 69.27$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 23c | 69.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 68.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d7…72e4backed Yes | 40c | 67.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 32c | 66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe03e…2365backed Yes | 26c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed Yes | 35c | 63.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x92c5…1138backed Yes | 20c | 59.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9231…b267backed Yes | 45c | 59.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed Yes | 25c | 55.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed No | 79c | 54.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14e5…441dbacked Yes | 32c | 54.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6a…7feebacked Yes | 36c | 54.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 50c | 53.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…e382backed Yes | 45c | 52.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…fa86backed Yes | 38c | 52.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9a…f2a8backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 33c | 44.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 51c | 43.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 55c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 71c | 27.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x082a…defabacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd818…03c4backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3131…997ebacked Yes | 41c | 24.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…6469backed No | 56c | 21.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b2…b787backed No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459a…18a6backed No | 55c | 19.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 67cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71fb…b277backed No | 78c | 19.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C or below on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.