MLB · resolved market
Blue Jays vs. Rays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48cd79f37e3a71fab7b3fb50dad3b47b9f9b53c134ae139e081d22febb07c492
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raysof Blue Jays, Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9e9…0501backed Rays | 52c | 2,005$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.4 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ad…7f76backed Blue Jays | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Rays | 51c | 1,600$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.99 | 264 | 53.8%142 W · 122 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Rays | 56c | 1,200$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Blue Jays | 44c | 1,200$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Blue Jays | 48c | 1,043$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.22 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Blue Jays | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…d5dfbacked Rays | 52c | 961$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10e…8404backed Blue Jays | 48c | 961$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.28 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Rays | 52c | 900$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Rays | 51c | 799.91$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.96 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Blue Jays | 16c | 798.21$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…d5ccbacked Blue Jays | 22c | 791.18$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.06 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Blue Jays | 13c | 679.93$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.39 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…f563backed Blue Jays | 29c | 629.56$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.87 | 258 | 35.3%91 W · 167 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…f8edbacked Blue Jays | 36c | 607.83$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.8 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Blue Jays | 24c | 517.67$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.14 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Blue Jays | 48c | 499.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…e1b0backed Blue Jays | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Blue Jays | 15c | 467.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 130 | 21.5%28 W · 102 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed Blue Jays | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Blue Jays | 48c | 363.84$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.64 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…a8e1backed Rays | 52c | 323.79$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.42 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83d…3324backed Rays | 78c | 300$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a5…9996backed Blue Jays | 9c | 263.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Rays | 61c | 241.6$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.71 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x069c…96e4backed Blue Jays | 13c | 225.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd386…1887backed Blue Jays | 19c | 215.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 192 | 33.3%64 W · 128 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Rays | 52c | 211.38$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.38 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Blue Jays | 48c | 209$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Blue Jays | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…91debacked Rays | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Blue Jays | 28c | 182.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b8…0646backed Blue Jays | 15c | 160$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb26…94ddbacked Blue Jays | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 14.6%18 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Rays | 51c | 92.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Blue Jays | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Rays | 52c | 76.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…9b68backed Blue Jays | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Rays | 51c | 69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61cb…1babbacked Blue Jays | 49c | 61.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Blue Jays | 45c | 59.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 177 | 32.8%58 W · 119 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x792d…8e8bbacked Rays | 53c | 59.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7e…54ddbacked Blue Jays | 48c | 58.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Rays | 53c | 55.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Blue Jays | 47c | 54.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…a91ebacked Blue Jays | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Blue Jays | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9599…be88backed Rays | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 255 | 11.8%30 W · 225 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0c…04cbbacked Rays | 51c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Blue Jays | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Rays | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,293 | 46.6%603 W · 690 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ab…cdcbbacked Rays | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc9…7e5bbacked Rays | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 189 | 51.3%97 W · 92 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.