Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48eb04575a442a166fe6c885870156221897855b0146263a16c04e4a64313c58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 48c | 694.13$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.12 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 49c | 616.45$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.06 | 908 | 29.2%265 W · 643 L | -21.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 369.22$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.97 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 41c | 289.47$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.58 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 262.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 1,523 | 15.4%234 W · 1,289 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 59c | 261.75$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.44 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 48c | 239.04$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.24 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 46c | 217$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 50c | 174.94$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.32 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 138.72$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 75c | 132.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 416 | 51.9%216 W · 200 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 48c | 132.39$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d42…5bf3backed Yes | 60c | 128.68$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 64c | 128.2$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.37 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 50c | 120.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.14 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 51c | 118.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.71 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 57c | 107.61$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.27 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 23c | 107.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 107 | 19.6%21 W · 86 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 47c | 106.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 44c | 103.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.73 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 98.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 94.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 59c | 94.15$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed Yes | 55c | 82.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 46c | 78.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 58.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 53c | 58.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 38c | 58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 48c | 53.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Yes | 60c | 52.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 220 | 70.9%156 W · 64 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 45c | 52.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 25c | 52.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 59c | 52.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 47.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 43c | 47.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 577 | 57.7%333 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…c550backed Yes | 61c | 45.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 50c | 45.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 55c | 43.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 48c | 42.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 54c | 42.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 40.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1157…c118backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 49c | 39.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…5c65backed Yes | 53c | 38.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb0…3aa0backed No | 74c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 73c | 35.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 34.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 60c | 30.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 30.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd846…b233backed Yes | 45c | 30.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…36cdbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 55c | 29.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 52c | 28.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 61c | 27.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 39c | 27.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 58c | 26.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 56c | 26.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 59c | 25.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…49a3backed Yes | 51c | 25.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 50c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 63c | 24.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 76c | 24.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 213 | 52.6%112 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…735cbacked Yes | 55c | 24.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 63c | 23.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 52c | 20.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 508 | 60.8%309 W · 199 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.