Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x221ca63a5e6b4a065e047b43442d6eb4848cbbaffc7c4e765d78a777add5627f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 37c | 500.19$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.21 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 69c | 478.25$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.09 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 43c | 402.47$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.8 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 262.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 32c | 219.8$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.63 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 33c | 206.95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.25 | 908 | 29.2%265 W · 643 L | -21.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 202.7$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.85 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 148.18$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.28 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 28c | 138.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 35c | 133$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.47 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 131.27$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.33 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 55c | 124.74$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.81 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 42c | 117.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 105.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 37c | 103$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.52 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 48c | 100.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 27c | 91.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 88.17$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 42c | 78.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +7.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 58c | 73.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 28c | 71.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 64.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 47c | 63.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 447 | 60%268 W · 179 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…4b96backed Yes | 23c | 59.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 67c | 58.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 58.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 25c | 57.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 54c | 53.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 30c | 50.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 172 | 34.9%60 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 198 | 31.8%63 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 30c | 49.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 49c | 46.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 69c | 45.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 45.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 44.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 54c | 43.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 42.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 64c | 41.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 64c | 37.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 36.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 34.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6012…900fbacked No | 74c | 33.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd846…b233backed Yes | 34c | 31.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 293 | 37.5%110 W · 183 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 36c | 28.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 74c | 26.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,417 | 65.2%924 W · 493 L | +59.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 44c | 26.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 197 | 50.8%100 W · 97 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 50c | 21.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 239 | 72.8%174 W · 65 L | +27.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 767 | 27%207 W · 560 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 515 | 52%268 W · 247 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd63a…90a6backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 55c | 19.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 62c | 18.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 213 | 52.6%112 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfd…c4cdbacked No | 61c | 17.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 70c | 15.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.