MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Giants
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x490337fe61c91170d3dbb31c26a37077b6f341ad6296fb582b669f64b7e29e29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Giantsof Athletics, Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Giants | 65c | 20,000$13,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,999.99 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Athletics | 35c | 15,998$5,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,599.29 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Athletics | 32c | 3,664$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.35 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…77bfbacked Giants | 63c | 3,218$2,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190.82 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Athletics | 36c | 3,160$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.99 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Athletics | 5c | 2,300$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf980…6528backed Giants | 63c | 2,052$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.84 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Athletics | 37c | 2,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Athletics | 35c | 1,703$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.15 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b2…f8d4backed Giants | 63c | 1,622$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…0bd2backed Athletics | 37c | 1,620$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Athletics | 35c | 1,143$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Giants | 79c | 1,107$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.95 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Athletics | 37c | 839.8$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.46 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Giants | 73c | 751.52$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.82 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Athletics | 35c | 428.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Athletics | 36c | 415.22$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Giants | 75c | 414.72$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.62 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x069c…96e4backed Athletics | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b3…6159backed Giants | 63c | 317.46$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.46 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Athletics | 28c | 309.72$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.68 | 123 | 35%43 W · 80 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…9236backed Giants | 69c | 272.46$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.66 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Athletics | 35c | 272.1$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.24 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Giants | 64c | 257.62$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.74 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Giants | 71c | 243.08$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.49 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Athletics | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Athletics | 37c | 177.37$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…046ebacked Giants | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Athletics | 16c | 155.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Athletics | 35c | 151.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Giants | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Giants | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcf…d6a9backed Giants | 65c | 109.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb703…6f88backed Athletics | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Athletics | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Giants | 63c | 96.29$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…4a51backed Athletics | 37c | 94.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Giants | 63c | 80.62$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Giants | 68c | 64.44$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x40a3…6ed8backed Giants | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce9…7a2cbacked Athletics | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 206 | 45.1%93 W · 113 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Athletics | 35c | 53.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…6e9cbacked Athletics | 38c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b1…0c27backed Athletics | 35c | 50.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Athletics | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Giants | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb4…da3cbacked Giants | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Giants | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Giants | 65c | 38.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Giants | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Athletics | 38c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae3a…bdd7backed Athletics | 39c | 34.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Athletics | 35c | 32.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…b560backed Giants | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc40…4036backed Giants | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9a…a73dbacked Giants | 65c | 30.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7664…7867backed Giants | 63c | 27.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9895…c4d8backed Giants | 63c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Giants | 61c | 25.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd587…47f4backed Giants | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9de…07d5backed Giants | 66c | 24.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb770…3a5abacked Giants | 66c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c71…4148backed Giants | 63c | 22.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -49%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60df…31f7backed Giants | 65c | 19.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13cd…245dbacked Giants | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x811f…349ebacked Giants | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.