NBA · resolved market
Spread: Suns (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x492351c7cca4f4c179466fb3b771a36660d3910935a809cbddcb3f8fcf5e0e99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Suns, Clippers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Clippers | 55c | 42,301$23,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,159.92 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Suns | 45c | 35,368$16,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,282.85 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x220c…43c8backed Clippers | 54c | 10,000$5,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,399.98 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…fed1backed Suns | 47c | 10,000$4,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,301.82 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…6ed7backed Suns | 46c | 4,707$2,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,541.69 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Clippers | 55c | 2,273$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.08 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…ffd0backed Suns | 46c | 1,956$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.26 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Suns | 45c | 1,740$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Clippers | 54c | 1,427$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.52 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Clippers | 55c | 1,394$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.64 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Suns | 48c | 1,189$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…67cabacked Suns | 46c | 1,089$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.13 | 508 | 38.2%194 W · 314 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Suns | 45c | 745$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.75 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Clippers | 53c | 523$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.37 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…8c92backed Suns | 46c | 478.26$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0989…4a26backed Suns | 45c | 461.49$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Suns | 45c | 447.25$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.99 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc557…e530backed Clippers | 55c | 414.22$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.82 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Clippers | 48c | 284.66$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.94 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4e…397fbacked Clippers | 56c | 260$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…a469backed Suns | 45c | 259$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Clippers | 53c | 235$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.55 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…46dfbacked Suns | 45c | 222.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.21 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…90c9backed Suns | 45c | 220$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Suns | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Suns | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 170 | 35.9%61 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce30…e9dabacked Clippers | 72c | 205.26$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Suns | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94f5…87f0backed Clippers | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Suns | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08dd…55b0backed Clippers | 56c | 122.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.71 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f85…7e17backed Suns | 46c | 119.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Suns | 47c | 94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd08b…daa9backed Clippers | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Clippers | 53c | 88.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Suns | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Suns | 45c | 56.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 327 | 43.4%142 W · 185 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Suns | 47c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc30…197abacked Suns | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32f…4f6cbacked Suns | 46c | 38.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14c8…ce8bbacked Clippers | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Suns | 33c | 31.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…daddbacked Suns | 47c | 27.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +149.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1806…a29bbacked Clippers | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Clippers | 57c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Suns (-3.5)this page
- Clippers vs. SunsSuns won
- Clippers vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineClippers won
- Clippers vs. Suns: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 223.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 224.5Under won
- Spread: Suns (-2.5)Suns won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.