Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Tarleton State Texans vs. California Baptist Lancers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4933325a57eb5b11d6d342f2fa2eab53605db6d4adb1dbfc2e9814431d5580a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- California Baptist Lancersof Tarleton State Texans, California Baptist Lancers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Tarleton State Texans | 29c | 3,050$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.99 | 105 | 11.4%12 W · 93 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Tarleton State Texans | 17c | 2,365$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.16 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked California Baptist Lancers | 67c | 1,612$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.84 | 1,058 | 55.8%590 W · 468 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed California Baptist Lancers | 71c | 1,567$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.51 | 216 | 36.1%78 W · 138 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked California Baptist Lancers | 71c | 1,166$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.19 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Tarleton State Texans | 18c | 865$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.7 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Tarleton State Texans | 51c | 699.8$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.62 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a12…a94abacked Tarleton State Texans | 16c | 671.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…2c24backed Tarleton State Texans | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Tarleton State Texans | 52c | 517.85$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.28 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d9d7backed California Baptist Lancers | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b9…b6a9backed Tarleton State Texans | 49c | 405.84$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Tarleton State Texans | 16c | 399.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Tarleton State Texans | 30c | 335.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Tarleton State Texans | 15c | 240.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Tarleton State Texans | 18c | 225.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…e8f5backed California Baptist Lancers | 76c | 221.43$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.75 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed California Baptist Lancers | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 255 | 44.3%113 W · 142 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Tarleton State Texans | 34c | 143.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed California Baptist Lancers | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 484 | 62.8%304 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Tarleton State Texans | 16c | 124.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Tarleton State Texans | 18c | 117.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Tarleton State Texans | 62c | 113.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 383 | 45.4%174 W · 209 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Tarleton State Texans | 18c | 111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | -13.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ec…81c2backed Tarleton State Texans | 18c | 108.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tarleton State Texans | 16c | 98.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Tarleton State Texans | 27c | 95.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 870 | 47.2%411 W · 459 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Tarleton State Texans | 40c | 94.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…afbcbacked Tarleton State Texans | 24c | 86.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 703 | 49.6%349 W · 354 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Tarleton State Texans | 18c | 83.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed California Baptist Lancers | 40c | 62.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked California Baptist Lancers | 49c | 61.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 226 | 56.2%127 W · 99 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Tarleton State Texans | 20c | 53.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1,003 | 55.3%555 W · 448 L | +46.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed California Baptist Lancers | 36c | 41.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Tarleton State Texans | 48c | 41.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Tarleton State Texans | 30c | 36.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 309 | 45.6%141 W · 168 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…505cbacked California Baptist Lancers | 79c | 35.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Tarleton State Texans | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tarleton State Texans vs. California Baptist Lancersthis page
- Spread: California Baptist Lancers (-10.5)Tarleton State Texans won
- Tarleton State Texans vs. California Baptist Lancers: O/U 139.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.