Earnings · resolved market
Will Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4933a959ce5b5759205dc00c88d7c4abfab2aca55d7a0b2985e5b723769abc88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 63c | 3,328$2,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,081.17 | 473 | 38.5%182 W · 291 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 74c | 1,698$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260.93 | 768 | 37.4%287 W · 481 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 23c | 1,046$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.73 | 348 | 36.8%128 W · 220 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 37c | 800$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 31c | 734$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.19 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 26c | 387.5$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.75 | 316 | 29.4%93 W · 223 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 75c | 236.68$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.11 | 213 | 41.3%88 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c0…3deebacked No | 49c | 205.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 676 | 42.9%290 W · 386 L | -36.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 59c | 150.65$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.61 | 145 | 33.1%48 W · 97 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…7e23backed No | 38c | 149.21$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 73c | 147$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.79 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 27c | 121$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.92 | 582 | 39%227 W · 355 L | -25.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe123…2fc1backed No | 31c | 111$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.53 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8a…f6a4backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 39c | 81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 27c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…d3ddbacked Yes | 76c | 65.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f4…9d7fbacked No | 26c | 61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 24c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 26c | 50.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…1b0dbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…4a9dbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…47a2backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…1479backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…e434backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…8490backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e8…637abacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…3428backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +176.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdc…f5e4backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd219…0412backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93d9…ad95backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd83f…03b1backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -41%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37e2…13e1backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbc…9feabacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…a4e6backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae2…34d9backed Yes | 80c | 42.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.