Tennis · resolved market
ITF W15 Astana 5 Women: Haruna Arakawa vs Ha Eum Lee
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49aa5646b58b03fc7cffc26f50551e24d5531217f750f2d124f32d4f19b8bab4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Haruna Arakawaof Haruna Arakawa, Ha Eum Lee
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa107…e6a1backed Haruna Arakawa | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400.17 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Ha Eum Lee | 48c | 2,250$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.99 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Haruna Arakawa | 42c | 1,400$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.57 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ha Eum Lee | 48c | 1,345$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.17 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Ha Eum Lee | 44c | 1,319$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.9 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Ha Eum Lee | 47c | 1,176$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.15 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Haruna Arakawa | 43c | 961.75$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.79 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefbc…b344backed Ha Eum Lee | 51c | 921.29$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.26 | 301 | 47.5%143 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…1a16backed Haruna Arakawa | 52c | 902.49$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.23 | 354 | 50.8%180 W · 174 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Haruna Arakawa | 77c | 756.96$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.79 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Ha Eum Lee | 46c | 681.56$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.62 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d3…8a20backed Haruna Arakawa | 79c | 652.13$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.97 | 98 | 65.3%64 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Ha Eum Lee | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Ha Eum Lee | 50c | 382.6$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.3 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Ha Eum Lee | 47c | 378.96$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.74 | 277 | 44.4%123 W · 154 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…7833backed Ha Eum Lee | 13c | 354.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 151 | 15.9%24 W · 127 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Ha Eum Lee | 10c | 297.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…986cbacked Ha Eum Lee | 45c | 240$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 636 | 48%305 W · 331 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Ha Eum Lee | 49c | 202.02$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 1,103 | 52.9%583 W · 520 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b2…1c67backed Haruna Arakawa | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Ha Eum Lee | 55c | 197.26$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.71 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…268dbacked Haruna Arakawa | 51c | 196.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.42 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd79e…d969backed Haruna Arakawa | 61c | 176.58$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.1 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Haruna Arakawa | 74c | 170$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 883 | 58.2%514 W · 369 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Haruna Arakawa | 42c | 150$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Ha Eum Lee | 22c | 98.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 489 | 47.4%232 W · 257 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Ha Eum Lee | 36c | 96.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Haruna Arakawa | 50c | 66.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 695 | 45.8%318 W · 377 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d5…573bbacked Haruna Arakawa | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Ha Eum Lee | 48c | 55.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 1,421 | 55%782 W · 639 L | +23.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Haruna Arakawa | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Haruna Arakawa | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 690 | 47%324 W · 366 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Ha Eum Lee | 50c | 49.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 277 | 49.1%136 W · 141 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Ha Eum Lee | 20c | 48.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Haruna Arakawa | 42c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 240 | 52.5%126 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Haruna Arakawa | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ha Eum Lee | 48c | 36.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Ha Eum Lee | 47c | 27.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 509 | 46.6%237 W · 272 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07d…4ee1backed Haruna Arakawa | 42c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Ha Eum Lee | 42c | 26.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ITF W15 Astana 5 Women: Haruna Arakawa vs Ha Eum Leethis page
- ITF W15 Astana 5 Women: Completed Match: Haruna Arakawa vs Ha Eum LeeYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.