Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Inter Turku vs. FC Vaduz: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a0306ee3dbca1d2c98892060f3a1a40b504b41e294133058aaf64f7d718e50e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a3b…aa7dbacked Over | 22c | 2,070$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 64c | 1,781$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.95 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 13c | 1,355$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.09 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 12c | 1,329$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.6 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 14c | 1,186$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.91 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Over | 16c | 1,177$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.13 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…cc48backed Over | 22c | 1,035$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e03…040fbacked Over | 22c | 1,035$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 11c | 1,000$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.08 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Over | 22c | 918.58$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 17c | 718.4$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.13 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c2…529abacked Over | 22c | 631.82$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 69c | 575.77$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.91 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 13c | 544.04$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 16c | 468$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Over | 22c | 413.45$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 17c | 383.22$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 21c | 249.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7b…90dfbacked Under | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…2f1bbacked Over | 21c | 198.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 23c | 195.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 16c | 186.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 16c | 162.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 19c | 143.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 7c | 142.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 83 | 16.9%14 W · 69 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked Over | 24c | 139.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 16c | 123.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 29c | 119.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 116 | 74.1%86 W · 30 L | +18.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Over | 27c | 118.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8210…1942backed Over | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b9…c40bbacked Under | 71c | 98.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 18c | 95.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…3373backed Over | 23c | 84.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 25c | 75.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f0…e092backed Over | 17c | 73.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 17c | 72.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0c…4d9cbacked Over | 39c | 61.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Over | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…eebebacked Over | 25c | 49.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Inter Turku vs. FC Vaduz: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Inter Turku vs. FC Vaduz: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Inter Turku vs. FC Vaduz: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Inter Turku vs. FC Vaduz: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Inter Turku vs. FC Vaduz: FC Vaduz O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Inter Turku vs. FC Vaduz: FC Vaduz O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Inter Turku vs. FC Vaduz: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Inter Turku vs. FC Vaduz: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Inter Turku vs. FC Vaduz: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Inter Turku vs. FC Vaduz: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Inter Turku (-1.5)FC Vaduz won
- Spread: FC Inter Turku (-2.5)FC Vaduz won
- Spread: FC Vaduz (-1.5)FC Inter Turku won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.