MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a366b7392f457e2f04fd5f308155e1b8cb2efcc2d827fb05084d8207193fbaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 63c | 14,286$9,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,000 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 37c | 12,680$4,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,964.85 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 37c | 938.88$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.46 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Under | 79c | 400$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 6c | 291.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 16c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed Under | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 40c | 119.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.12 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Over | 25c | 96.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 78c | 86.88$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…eae3backed Under | 60c | 77.87$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36dd…bfccbacked Over | 62c | 77.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 41c | 64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 624 | 54.2%338 W · 286 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 41c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 473 | 46.5%220 W · 253 L | +25.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 50c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 66c | 35.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 39c | 33.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa132…757ebacked Under | 60c | 25.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 51c | 23.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 63c | 16.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.