MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc64ef6b2d22452160175a9765f8d6bfd640aee4b92231625fa1defc22ee83730
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 39c | 61,554$24,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,103.87 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 61c | 31,804$19,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,404.06 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 20,805$11,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,730.86 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 57c | 9,280$5,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,292.1 | 141 | 56.7%80 W · 61 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Under | 56c | 7,589$4,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,249.66 | 991 | 49.9%495 W · 496 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 52c | 5,723$2,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,769.22 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 58c | 4,563$2,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920.52 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 47c | 3,528$1,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,667.87 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 59c | 3,321$1,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,377.07 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 52c | 2,715$1,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.27 | 508 | 56.9%289 W · 219 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.99 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Over | 47c | 1,927$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.36 | 1,139 | 42.7%486 W · 653 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 44c | 1,600$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896 | 647 | 52.4%339 W · 308 L | +28.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…ab7ebacked Over | 52c | 1,335$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.51 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 65c | 1,280$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.12 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 44c | 1,200$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672 | 570 | 53.3%304 W · 266 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 1,162$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.72 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 53c | 927.88$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.73 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 37c | 820$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 45c | 798$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.89 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb66…c8dfbacked Over | 69c | 680$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a26…1589backed Under | 43c | 655.81$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 51c | 388.89$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.9 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 54c | 196.5$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.22 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 51c | 194.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.45 | 583 | 58.5%341 W · 242 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…6555backed Over | 48c | 190$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 30c | 145.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb42…176ebacked Over | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.86 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 58c | 110.24$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Over | 76c | 96.52$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 350 | 54.6%191 W · 159 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…03acbacked Over | 52c | 84.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 65c | 75.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 62c | 64.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 67c | 62.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Over | 44c | 61.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa7…977abacked Under | 49c | 61.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 65c | 53.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 34c | 53.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 55c | 51.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 45c | 48.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 42.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa132…757ebacked Under | 57c | 41.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 44c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 313 | 54.6%171 W · 142 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 63c | 35.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 63c | 34.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 425 | 51.8%220 W · 205 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 41c | 33.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…01c9backed Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…d3dbbacked Over | 50c | 25.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Over | 44c | 23.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 44c | 22.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 52c | 22.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.