MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d0454247b0aa1e807f865fdae2e016920d54a728213e267c0eefd6e176ce74e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 5,513$2,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,205.2 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres | 17c | 4,798$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.22 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 1,647$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.16 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Diego Padres | 67c | 1,440$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.18 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 1,382$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.87 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 1,050$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.82 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 1,010$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.03 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 981.5$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.77 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 932$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.6 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed San Francisco Giants | 43c | 831.11$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.07 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a26…1589backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 651.75$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.75 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 441.47$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.81 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 441.3$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.6 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked San Diego Padres | 77c | 393.33$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.33 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked San Diego Padres | 37c | 372$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.77 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 33c | 350.26$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.93 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0310…4745backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 318$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 303.05$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.64 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 295.05$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.22 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 241.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants | 53c | 221.77$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…ab7ebacked San Francisco Giants | 45c | 216.73$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.2 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed San Diego Padres | 19c | 196.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 173$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 154$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x975c…6343backed San Francisco Giants | 73c | 150.8$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -45%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked San Francisco Giants | 61c | 147$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants | 38c | 142.44$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.68 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 122.3$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked San Francisco Giants | 46c | 112.7$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.86 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…697dbacked San Francisco Giants | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…7551backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 102$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 98.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked San Francisco Giants | 45c | 93.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked San Francisco Giants | 68c | 92.3$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 86.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 83.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed San Diego Padres | 25c | 71.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Diego Padres | 52c | 67.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…6aaabacked San Diego Padres | 37c | 61.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked San Diego Padres | 36c | 57.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…1c6dbacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 56.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 51.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 48.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Francisco Giants | 36c | 48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 46.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 44.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 36.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…caa6backed San Diego Padres | 51c | 31.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 29.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac48…e505backed San Francisco Giants | 42c | 25.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…002fbacked San Francisco Giants | 42c | 25.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked San Diego Padres | 61c | 20.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…284abacked San Francisco Giants | 71c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 16.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.