MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9febe2cfd9fcaa05cae0dfe9c340288030e2807cb7a02eea1fb713f3b4c2293c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $165,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $160,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 44c | 83,161$36,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,551.67 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe54…41d6backed Over | 60c | 31,749$19,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,072.94 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 16,914$8,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,897.37 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 60c | 12,579$7,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,547.66 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…4201backed Over | 54c | 11,115$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -5.3wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Over | 50c | 6,644$3,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,322 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 6,053$2,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,976.95 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 50c | 4,599$2,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,304.77 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 62c | 1,608$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.6 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 16c | 992.8$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.85 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 55c | 931.75$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.96 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 842.14$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.37 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 748.39$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.29 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 7c | 590$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 61c | 480.43$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.82 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 46c | 308.12$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 32c | 284.32$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.1 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 51c | 278$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.78 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…3767backed Over | 50c | 262.42$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…5862backed Over | 71c | 240$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.55 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 43c | 219.85$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.51 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…01c9backed Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…3bb3backed Under | 51c | 188.67$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.45 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Over | 10c | 174$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 59c | 172.6$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.24 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 52c | 131.88$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.58 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 59c | 129.49$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.09 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 41c | 124.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.39 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 65c | 121$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 45c | 115.25$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 35c | 111$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 41c | 109.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.76 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Under | 66c | 105$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 58c | 103.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 44c | 103.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x975c…6343backed Over | 58c | 95.65$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -45%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 43c | 87.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 59c | 77.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfe…d954backed Under | 49c | 77.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Under | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Under | 59c | 66.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 43c | 65.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 28c | 64.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…ab7ebacked Over | 52c | 63.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed Under | 35c | 57.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 60c | 56.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Under | 55c | 49.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 56c | 42.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 45c | 41.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8e…32c0backed Under | 49c | 40.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 63c | 37.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 556 | 58.1%323 W · 233 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 41c | 36.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 45c | 35.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked Under | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 52c | 27.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Over | 50c | 27.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 44c | 27.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 486 | 51.6%251 W · 235 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa132…757ebacked Under | 76c | 26.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 44c | 26.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 53c | 22.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Over | 66c | 22.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…0cd6backed Over | 63c | 17.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.