MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f33202f4d49c2b5bbd2e18a07e0ba06d12c06bc01b98e169fcf72185ef528cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 44c | 57,226$25,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,434.77 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 57c | 44,875$25,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,164.18 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 55c | 29,238$16,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,159.94 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 45c | 12,292$5,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,531.4 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 45c | 9,418$4,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,205.2 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 6,011$2,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,065.25 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 45c | 3,527$1,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,587 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 62c | 2,823$1,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.32 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 47c | 2,638$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,397.89 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 1,467$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.15 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 45c | 949.71$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.37 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 34c | 454$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.36 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 45c | 399$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.55 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 19c | 350.37$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.57 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 75c | 332.32$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.47 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 46c | 245.65$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 239.15$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 52c | 231$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.88 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 48c | 231$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975c…6343backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -45%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…697dbacked Over | 68c | 205.88$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 45c | 199.28$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.68 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 45c | 150.4$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 46c | 136.45$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.77 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Under | 46c | 83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 54c | 55.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 45c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Over | 55c | 36.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 44c | 34.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 53c | 25.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 46c | 22.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bc…dd5cbacked Over | 55c | 19.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Over | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.