NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Jazz: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a711dc25ce6a6467b9429669fe2ad13aad555c280d5afb82835eaa7ebea4f79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Over | 50c | 40,000$20,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,000 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked Over | 49c | 28,036$13,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,876.78 | 290 | 55.5%161 W · 129 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 20,570$10,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,264.61 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Under | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…0924backed Under | 51c | 11,600$5,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,684 | 240 | 45.4%109 W · 131 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9b…945abacked Under | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,899.99 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 8,164$4,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,081.59 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 49c | 5,796$2,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,840 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 50c | 5,232$2,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,616.05 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…69e0backed Under | 50c | 5,200$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 387 | 50.4%195 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Under | 51c | 3,454$1,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,701.63 | 377 | 47.5%179 W · 198 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 461 | 45.6%210 W · 251 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Under | 51c | 2,601$1,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.58 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 1,900$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5c…36f0backed Under | 51c | 1,833$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.33 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Over | 49c | 1,800$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 1,692$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.9 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Over | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 768.99$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.12 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 50c | 480$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 50c | 199.98$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.33 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 50c | 118.81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Under | 51c | 94.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 49c | 94.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 207 | 41.1%85 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Over | 50c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…4284backed Over | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Under | 50c | 40.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 50c | 40.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe8…e59ebacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…24d2backed Over | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…3234backed Over | 50c | 21.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Jazz: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Jazz (-0.5)Nets won
- 1H Spread: Jazz (-1.5)Nets won
- 1H Spread: Jazz (-2.5)Nets won
- Ace Bailey: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Cam Thomas: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jusuf Nurkić: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Jusuf Nurkić: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Nets vs. JazzNets won
- Nets vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineNets won
- Nets vs. Jazz: O/U 225.5Under won
- Nets vs. Jazz: O/U 227.5Under won
- Nets vs. Jazz: O/U 228.5Under won
- Nicolas Claxton: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Nicolas Claxton: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Nicolas Claxton: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Nicolas Claxton: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Spread: Jazz (-1.5)Nets won
- Spread: Jazz (-2.5)Nets won
- Spread: Jazz (-3.5)Nets won
- Spread: Jazz (-4.5)Nets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.