NBA · resolved market

Spread: Jazz (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4005c36008e5cc44fdc8b96d9f233d0410efad443048356eb1b03cd5f06da050

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Netsof Jazz, Nets
Resolved: Jan 31, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $480,802
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $481,516

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $480,802 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4924…3782backed Nets	47c	409,389$192,412 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216,976.79	874	51.5%450 W · 424 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Jazz	53c	227,067$120,346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120,345.55	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Jazz	53c	150,000$79,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79,500	518	44.4%230 W · 288 L	+11.0wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Jazz	55c	18,275$10,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,000	207	58%120 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Jazz	48c	16,399$7,872 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,871.55	404	46.8%189 W · 215 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Nets	46c	10,000$4,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,400	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Jazz	53c	9,999$5,299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,299.47	245	54.7%134 W · 111 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Nets	45c	9,997$4,499 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,498.35	1,124	48.6%546 W · 578 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Jazz	55c	7,810$4,296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,295.5	237	47.7%113 W · 124 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Nets	52c	7,790$4,050 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,740.14	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Jazz	53c	5,709$3,026 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,026	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Jazz	52c	5,600$2,911 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,910.56	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Nets	52c	3,156$1,641 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,515.07	524	60.1%315 W · 209 L	+35.6wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked Nets	52c	3,040$1,581 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,459.2	74	58.1%43 W · 31 L	+6.5wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Nets	50c	2,660$1,342 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,318.5	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6e3…6dfebacked Jazz	54c	2,528$1,365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,365	230	52.6%121 W · 109 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Jazz	55c	1,999$1,099 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,099.45	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nets	52c	1,897$994 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$902.9	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Nets	55c	1,818$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$818.18	1,522	49.6%755 W · 767 L	+27.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Jazz	53c	1,815$966 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$966.06	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf154…27e3backed Jazz	50c	1,800$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	90	51.1%46 W · 44 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nets	51c	1,623$832 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$791.33	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04c0…0927backed Jazz	47c	1,533$722 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$721.6	188	52.7%99 W · 89 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Nets	44c	1,176$518 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$658.43	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Jazz	50c	1,159$576 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$575.98	363	59.8%217 W · 146 L	+23.7wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5bd3…394cbacked Jazz	49c	1,039$509 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$509.3	100	48%48 W · 52 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Jazz	53c	1,002$531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$531.06	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Jazz	51c	939.61$479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479.2	762	49.5%377 W · 385 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nets	49c	841.84$413 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$429.34	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x098b…1fa5backed Nets	56c	838.67$470 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$369.01	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fe2…42d4backed Jazz	55c	608.18$331 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$331.47	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Nets	53c	574.82$305 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270.17	587	40%235 W · 352 L	+24.3wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Jazz	51c	488.98$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.81	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6238…0523backed Jazz	54c	425.68$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.6	158	49.4%78 W · 80 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x00b9…4ca6backed Jazz	56c	397.03$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.34	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Jazz	55c	380$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Nets	47c	343.86$161 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$183.17	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Nets	56c	301.32$169 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.58	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bcc…4324backed Nets	50c	300$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	528	44.7%236 W · 292 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf87b…180abacked Nets	49c	300$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153	165	39.4%65 W · 100 L	-11.6wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-15%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Jazz	50c	220$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.57	890	50.4%449 W · 441 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Nets	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	634	47.5%301 W · 333 L	-19.8wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Jazz	54c	196.11$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.9	357	47.1%168 W · 189 L	-8.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Jazz	55c	135.6$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.58	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Jazz	49c	135.04$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.17	432	44%190 W · 242 L	-18.3wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Jazz	54c	112.13$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.55	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x486f…b325backed Jazz	55c	110.04$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.52	121	43.8%53 W · 68 L	-6.7wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Jazz	53c	99.94$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.44	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Nets	48c	87.58$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.32	1,264	45.8%579 W · 685 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d89…e466backed Jazz	55c	83.94$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.81	62	41.9%26 W · 36 L	-5.9wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e65…701cbacked Jazz	55c	81.82$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	70	38.6%27 W · 43 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7eaa…3ea5backed Jazz	57c	70.18$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	226	55.3%125 W · 101 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Nets	46c	70$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.8	388	45.6%177 W · 211 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f40…600dbacked Jazz	54c	66.19$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.74	139	45.3%63 W · 76 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c04…2e2dbacked Nets	53c	64.32$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.32	506	48%243 W · 263 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3aca…d156backed Jazz	56c	59.04$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.06	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.21per pick	46cpaid	+63%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2360…8886backed Nets	51c	54.9$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.9	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.13per pick	58cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Nets	54c	51.85$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.85	625	46.9%293 W · 332 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Nets	49c	50.51$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.76	456	51.1%233 W · 223 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed Jazz	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	58	55.2%32 W · 26 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Nets	54c	50$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	493	51.7%255 W · 238 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Jazz	54c	48.15$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	565	47.8%270 W · 295 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Jazz	48c	48$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.91	207	41.1%85 W · 122 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60c2…8052backed Jazz	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	153	47.1%72 W · 81 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50a3…0a78backed Jazz	54c	41$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.14	140	50.7%71 W · 69 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1466…3bfbbacked Jazz	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	196	49%96 W · 100 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8677…4d2cbacked Nets	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	156	43.6%68 W · 88 L	-8.0wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x907f…19b1backed Nets	60c	33.33$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.33	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb95…a5ccbacked Jazz	54c	32.72$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.67	244	42.6%104 W · 140 L	-17.8wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Jazz	51c	32$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.32	1,024	50.8%520 W · 504 L	+18.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Jazz	52c	30.88$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.06	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88ee…13d8backed Jazz	52c	28.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	38	44.7%17 W · 21 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Nets	44c	28.48$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.95	397	36.3%144 W · 253 L	-27.0wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x117d…6542backed Jazz	55c	27.27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	564	54.3%306 W · 258 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Jazz	55c	24.85$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.62	576	57.8%333 W · 243 L	+13.0wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Jazz	54c	21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.34	1,018	51.6%525 W · 493 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f61…ab6bbacked Nets	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	56	42.9%24 W · 32 L	-3.9wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Jazz	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	470	45.1%212 W · 258 L	-10.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Jazz (-2.5)this page
1H Spread: Jazz (-0.5)Nets won
1H Spread: Jazz (-1.5)Nets won
1H Spread: Jazz (-2.5)Nets won
Ace Bailey: Points O/U 13.5No won
Cam Thomas: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
Jusuf Nurkić: Assists O/U 5.5No won
Jusuf Nurkić: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
Michael Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
Nets vs. JazzNets won
Nets vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineNets won
Nets vs. Jazz: O/U 225.5Under won
Nets vs. Jazz: O/U 226.5Under won
Nets vs. Jazz: O/U 227.5Under won
Nets vs. Jazz: O/U 228.5Under won
Nicolas Claxton: Assists O/U 3.5No won
Nicolas Claxton: Points O/U 10.5No won
Nicolas Claxton: Points O/U 11.5No won
Nicolas Claxton: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
Spread: Jazz (-1.5)Nets won
Spread: Jazz (-3.5)Nets won
Spread: Jazz (-4.5)Nets won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Jazz (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event