Champions League · resolved market
Will Boca Juniors vs. Benfica end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a8f033662497ea2519c34ea6c0e21a4cb1763a2b763bd588f23b1e67f2757b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 51c | 8,003$4,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,054.48 | 187 | 58.8%110 W · 77 L | +18.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,950 | 132 | 32.6%43 W · 89 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…2a3ebacked Yes | 34c | 3,747$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,485.41 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 16c | 3,705$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,117.33 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked No | 77c | 3,211$2,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,472.33 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Yes | 23c | 2,746$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,114.48 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…e578backed Yes | 35c | 2,616$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,700.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…f137backed Yes | 36c | 1,954$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.76 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 61c | 1,574$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.97 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked No | 78c | 1,490$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.2 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 65c | 1,260$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.62 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 68c | 1,116$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.8 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770 | 219 | 38.4%84 W · 135 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 16c | 937.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.5 | 120 | 36.7%44 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked No | 69c | 500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89fc…b5c2backed Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 17c | 487.93$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.48 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd82c…acb0backed Yes | 23c | 468.65$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.86 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.78 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb841…3cfbbacked No | 78c | 412.96$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 72cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed No | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 22c | 284$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.52 | 240 | 47.1%113 W · 127 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Yes | 22c | 284$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.52 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 70c | 258$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.34 | 291 | 42.3%123 W · 168 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 22c | 252.84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.9 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 20c | 227.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.18 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e3…30b5backed Yes | 20c | 115.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa51c…7ddebacked Yes | 23c | 108.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.56 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9306…d419backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Yes | 23c | 72.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac2…1966backed Yes | 26c | 60.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked No | 75c | 52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf634…3c9ebacked Yes | 36c | 51.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…e494backed Yes | 25c | 41.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…1692backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 75c | 28.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…f0abbacked No | 73c | 27.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 65c | 26.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 194 | 53.6%104 W · 90 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 204 | 62.3%127 W · 77 L | +19.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 75c | 16.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Boca Juniors vs. Benfica end in a draw?this page
- Will Benfica beat Boca Juniors?No won
- Will Boca Juniors beat Benfica?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.