Serie A · resolved market
Will Frosinone achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4aae47b6e60a056d93b664bae483429a4e2908d85691b4acd75d435ef11de445
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 69c | 1,072$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.48 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed No | 14c | 740$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +4.3wins | +0.61per pick | 24cpaid | +250.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Yes | 54c | 607.4$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Yes | 45c | 320.31$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.77 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 8c | 247.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +74%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 53c | 228.07$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ba…b283backed No | 38c | 135$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 53c | 134.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…a59fbacked No | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3e…abeabacked Yes | 56c | 121.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3988…7ae9backed No | 38c | 118.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed Yes | 62c | 112.61$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 44c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 47c | 51.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…dd6bbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…1df1backed No | 44c | 33.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…c61fbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…7eb6backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Frosinone achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 season?this page
- Will Avellino achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 season?No won
- Will Catanzaro achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 season?No won
- Will Juve Stabia achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 season?No won
- Will Mantova achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 season?No won
- Will Modena achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 season?No won
- Will Monza achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 season?Yes won
- Will Palermo achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 season?No won
- Will Venezia achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 season?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.