TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: No Hoodwink vs PuckChamp - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
No Hoodwinkof No Hoodwink, PuckChamp
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$85,774
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$91,747

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,774 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3413…8ff2backed No Hoodwink54c21,000$11,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,659.9547646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked No Hoodwink46c20,138$9,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,795.189741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed PuckChamp54c10,476$5,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,622.4793546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc746…3943backed PuckChamp47c7,104$3,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3166440.6%26 W · 38 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-22.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked PuckChamp61c3,775$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,300.1679859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked No Hoodwink47c3,637$1,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,945.6150850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked PuckChamp47c3,052$1,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,431.8554058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1de…21f5backed No Hoodwink40c3,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,799.9930452.3%159 W · 145 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed PuckChamp53c2,553$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.934442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed PuckChamp52c2,197$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140.1791553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x948a…d1a4backed No Hoodwink48c2,193$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.3824255%133 W · 109 L+14.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked PuckChamp61c2,066$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.522,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked PuckChamp46c2,010$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.2925143.4%109 W · 142 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked PuckChamp46c2,000$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.9569835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked PuckChamp54c1,880$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.792056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed No Hoodwink55c1,803$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.4419251%98 W · 94 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed No Hoodwink48c1,667$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.6657449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc4b…ecc5backed PuckChamp55c1,398$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.731936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x81c3…d67dbacked PuckChamp17c1,268$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.557045.7%32 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed PuckChamp46c1,250$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57537745.4%171 W · 206 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed PuckChamp2c1,060$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2878516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x2d40…dd57backed PuckChamp46c1,047$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.313132.3%10 W · 21 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x469f…3d4fbacked PuckChamp53c1,024$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.3623546.8%110 W · 125 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked No Hoodwink51c986.42$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.921,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed PuckChamp50c972.07$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.2127737.2%103 W · 174 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe348…32e2backed PuckChamp55c931.48$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.22757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x488a…cb68backed PuckChamp46c898$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.08966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+22.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c81…5518backed PuckChamp45c881$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.455437%20 W · 34 L-7.1wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-29.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc386…386fbacked PuckChamp46c873$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.582748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+29.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5d9…b188backed PuckChamp46c869.57$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4009855.1%54 W · 44 L+7.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3d…51b8backed PuckChamp61c776.9$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4766451.6%33 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87b5…0fcebacked No Hoodwink53c762.84$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87e6…9c8abacked No Hoodwink55c760.55$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.312253.3%65 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed PuckChamp44c685.12$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ed…1ea1backed PuckChamp44c598.3$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.258042.5%34 W · 46 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed PuckChamp48c559.41$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.2869132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked PuckChamp46c500$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23065863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9aff…b136backed No Hoodwink39c499.99$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30332445.1%146 W · 178 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e3b…be27backed No Hoodwink55c499.99$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22521047.6%100 W · 110 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed No Hoodwink55c499.99$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.1126247.7%125 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2690…4089backed PuckChamp46c480$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.8333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed PuckChamp44c454.55$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20096245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c3…8b21backed PuckChamp59c441.52$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2614065%26 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x75c5…5bbabacked PuckChamp45c441.28$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20021941.1%90 W · 129 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed No Hoodwink46c439.78$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.0348057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed PuckChamp46c434.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20041037.3%153 W · 257 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked PuckChamp43c424.49$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.8995342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked PuckChamp50c401.82$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.121,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4087…048bbacked PuckChamp44c400.28$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.174247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x499f…b72bbacked PuckChamp40c355.02$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.018035%28 W · 52 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x762a…ed42backed PuckChamp26c338.18$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878532.9%28 W · 57 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe434…f520backed PuckChamp60c333.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005352.8%28 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x453e…eabcbacked PuckChamp54c318.99$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.318657%49 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked PuckChamp45c311.98$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.0689938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x15d1…ccfebacked PuckChamp60c308.73$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.554659.7%326 W · 220 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…d03fbacked PuckChamp73c304.67$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.4117965.4%117 W · 62 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe694…0a08backed No Hoodwink50c302.41$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.4118152.5%95 W · 86 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed PuckChamp47c293$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.491,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked No Hoodwink56c292.25$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.3748053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed PuckChamp48c289.1$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.712559.2%74 W · 51 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No Hoodwink49c273$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.4838142%160 W · 221 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1fe…e21fbacked PuckChamp52c272.05$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.158153.1%43 W · 38 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed PuckChamp48c262.31$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.0528650%143 W · 143 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed PuckChamp59c249.79$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.2547951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e6c…0c16backed PuckChamp56c241.2$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.0119135.6%68 W · 123 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x242c…ddd2backed PuckChamp36c219.46$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7821447.2%101 W · 113 L+16.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed PuckChamp46c217.97$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7121540.9%88 W · 127 L-12.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed PuckChamp46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015648.7%76 W · 80 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked PuckChamp42c215.15$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6389238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2363…ed78backed PuckChamp47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed PuckChamp45c210.34$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9447548%228 W · 247 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2262…ef1cbacked PuckChamp55c206.99$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.423540%14 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed PuckChamp45c205.45$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4543738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14b0…a142backed PuckChamp45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901650%8 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f15…7691backed PuckChamp45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902040%8 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked PuckChamp42c199.99$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8459254.1%320 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked PuckChamp46c199.99$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9266947.1%315 W · 354 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed PuckChamp55c199.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9928544.9%128 W · 157 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ade…fb15backed PuckChamp47c178.25$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.786442.2%27 W · 37 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked No Hoodwink66c172.08$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3288166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xabd9…dc3abacked PuckChamp26c170.71$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5518733.2%62 W · 125 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef2…44c9backed PuckChamp46c163$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.984117.1%7 W · 34 L-9.1wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-54%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x4f56…50edbacked PuckChamp58c157.95$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.846949.3%34 W · 35 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa72a…5685backed PuckChamp46c153.95$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8213645.6%62 W · 74 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa965…7f73backed No Hoodwink43c140$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.826154.8%143 W · 118 L+11.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed No Hoodwink49c131.22$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.181345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed PuckChamp38c130$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.920820.7%43 W · 165 L-18.8wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-36.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed PuckChamp51c115.16$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0834041.2%140 W · 200 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd19e…d70ebacked PuckChamp47c103.35$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9720859.6%124 W · 84 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a08…ebdcbacked PuckChamp69c100.62$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.338639.5%34 W · 52 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fb2…bd2dbacked PuckChamp46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4630054.7%164 W · 136 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x382c…2261backed PuckChamp42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4221155%116 W · 95 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f20…934fbacked PuckChamp62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.512860.9%78 W · 50 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x142f…19f9backed PuckChamp52c95.06$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9923442.7%100 W · 134 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6844…d538backed PuckChamp46c93.76$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1320%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21dd…e4f5backed No Hoodwink55c93$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.448053.8%43 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8105…955abacked No Hoodwink55c92.73$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.731758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed PuckChamp39c91.84$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2452046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcede…e6c9backed PuckChamp56c89.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505565.5%36 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed PuckChamp55c89$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8512353.7%66 W · 57 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.