TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: No Hoodwink vs PuckChamp - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
No Hoodwinkof No Hoodwink, PuckChamp
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$139,753
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$161,974

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,753 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3413…8ff2backed No Hoodwink61c12,453$7,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,856.7947646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked No Hoodwink66c10,012$6,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,442.5680256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked No Hoodwink60c7,066$4,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,810.911,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked PuckChamp31c6,778$2,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,099.074037.5%15 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked PuckChamp40c5,548$2,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,198.3295342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed PuckChamp49c3,686$1,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,812.9393546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9058…a9c2backed PuckChamp42c3,579$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.7425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-51%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked No Hoodwink59c3,510$2,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,426.2550850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed PuckChamp14c2,750$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.543738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked No Hoodwink79c2,616$2,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.2554058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked PuckChamp29c2,395$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.132756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3bc…5bd2backed PuckChamp41c2,386$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98013943.9%61 W · 78 L-11.8wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-17.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked PuckChamp31c2,272$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.5925246.8%118 W · 134 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked PuckChamp33c2,240$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.942,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87e6…9c8abacked PuckChamp36c2,179$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.0112253.3%65 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed PuckChamp42c2,153$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90048054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked PuckChamp39c2,005$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.425143.4%109 W · 142 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked No Hoodwink64c1,988$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.3779859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10ae…df49backed PuckChamp37c1,825$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.063951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked No Hoodwink63c1,565$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.441,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x270c…f66fbacked PuckChamp2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed PuckChamp33c1,401$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.0521146.9%99 W · 112 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed PuckChamp30c1,365$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.4737745.4%171 W · 206 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f41…547cbacked PuckChamp32c1,310$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.9913142.7%56 W · 75 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfbe…dc24backed No Hoodwink61c1,272$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.27350.7%37 W · 36 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed PuckChamp24c1,227$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.2738142%160 W · 221 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed PuckChamp2c1,178$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.913323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked No Hoodwink68c1,161$794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.9461456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed PuckChamp22c1,160$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.7535737%132 W · 225 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed PuckChamp33c1,126$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.3869132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked PuckChamp22c1,113$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.689238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked No Hoodwink57c1,102$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.5965863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3de…6fe8backed No Hoodwink70c1,050$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31810075%75 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8840…f51abacked PuckChamp2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20205%1 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+150%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed No Hoodwink70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30050769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed No Hoodwink78c985.05$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.6820767.1%139 W · 68 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2c3…8b21backed PuckChamp41c938.27$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.544065%26 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93b6…5d73backed PuckChamp20c920.11$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.1813336.8%49 W · 84 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34a1…bf30backed PuckChamp35c858.9$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf52…efdfbacked PuckChamp26c784.48$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.7621558.6%126 W · 89 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4114…f750backed PuckChamp39c758.08$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.632147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked PuckChamp33c757.36$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.3989741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed No Hoodwink68c739.6$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.619251%98 W · 94 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked No Hoodwink64c710.84$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.3115050%75 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd19e…d70ebacked No Hoodwink64c688.41$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.4120859.6%124 W · 84 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb67…fd46backed PuckChamp22c633$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.449533.7%32 W · 63 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked No Hoodwink67c629.85$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.8561057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba01…1a89backed PuckChamp38c621.42$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2385244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed No Hoodwink60c600$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2401,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed PuckChamp29c594.02$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.661,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ed…1ea1backed PuckChamp37c589.97$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.298042.5%34 W · 46 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf201…f884backed PuckChamp34c588.24$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008960.7%54 W · 35 L+8.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+9.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x15d1…ccfebacked No Hoodwink77c550$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12754659.7%326 W · 220 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1568…2a89backed PuckChamp2c540.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109122%20 W · 71 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb2…bd2dbacked No Hoodwink67c539.25$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.7830054.7%164 W · 136 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b7a…8238backed PuckChamp34c530$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.337735.1%27 W · 50 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed PuckChamp41c515.14$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.0148057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed PuckChamp5c504.49$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0234041.2%140 W · 200 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed No Hoodwink60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20018143.6%79 W · 102 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0758…9532backed PuckChamp13c500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6518437.5%69 W · 115 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec1…9a95backed PuckChamp32c500$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.265328.3%15 W · 38 L-9.3wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-43.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x762a…ed42backed PuckChamp27c468.99$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1288532.9%28 W · 57 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x499f…b72bbacked PuckChamp33c463.73$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.268035%28 W · 52 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe434…f520backed No Hoodwink57c450.02$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.865352.8%28 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5e8…fafcbacked PuckChamp28c444.69$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.038444%37 W · 47 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e6c…0c16backed PuckChamp34c435.51$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.119135.6%68 W · 123 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabd9…dc3abacked PuckChamp26c418.9$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.8718733.2%62 W · 125 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed No Hoodwink62c405.77$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.7747650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed PuckChamp38c383.97$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.4291553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked PuckChamp35c383.16$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.351,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed PuckChamp36c383.02$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.1658943%253 W · 336 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6600…d5fdbacked No Hoodwink68c382.99$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.566369.8%44 W · 19 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfbd8…d03fbacked No Hoodwink70c379.47$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.3717965.4%117 W · 62 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed No Hoodwink51c369.67$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.9934442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked No Hoodwink54c366.68$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.4253844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aff…b136backed No Hoodwink62c356.99$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.132445.1%146 W · 178 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4994…3e36backed PuckChamp34c347.36$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.389964.6%64 W · 35 L+19.9wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+67.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked PuckChamp39c320$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12666947.1%315 W · 354 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked PuckChamp32c303.22$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3668345.8%313 W · 370 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked No Hoodwink66c300$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.2888166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x74e0…d590backed No Hoodwink65c298.5$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.811963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked PuckChamp37c291.79$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9258746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x242c…ddd2backed PuckChamp29c281.75$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5921447.2%101 W · 113 L+16.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed PuckChamp36c278.3$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10026343%113 W · 150 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc62e…2d85backed PuckChamp39c276.31$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.764936.7%18 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75c5…5bbabacked No Hoodwink76c274.13$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.8721941.1%90 W · 129 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2262…ef1cbacked PuckChamp35c272.63$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.763540%14 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed PuckChamp33c250$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.547951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked No Hoodwink55c249.99$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.4959254.1%320 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked PuckChamp39c249.75$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4216553.3%88 W · 77 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No Hoodwink79c247.24$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.3779341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe390…2b57backed PuckChamp34c226.13$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No Hoodwink61c225.99$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.2278516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed No Hoodwink63c214.76$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.3765647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed PuckChamp32c208.99$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8834443.9%151 W · 193 L-0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e3b…be27backed PuckChamp41c202.78$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.5421047.6%100 W · 110 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a4e…852fbacked PuckChamp6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124238.1%16 W · 26 L+5.9wins+0.14per pick24cpaid+33.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x81a9…df08backed PuckChamp50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005137.3%19 W · 32 L-6.8wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-30.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x30ce…d485backed No Hoodwink41c200$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1187553.3%40 W · 35 L+7.2wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+18.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed No Hoodwink78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.91,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.