Dota2 · resolved market

Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ae3ad4904595923193a04b6f196116e720e03ea9d76c4b5c58243d0cbe1eb2d

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yellow Submarineof Yellow Submarine, MODUS
Resolved: Jun 26, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $26,347
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $27,646

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,347 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Yellow Submarine	45c	6,706$3,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,706.15	1,210	57.1%691 W · 519 L	+44.5wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked MODUS	54c	4,769$2,567 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,566.83	255	49%125 W · 130 L	+9.4wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed MODUS	55c	3,509$1,930 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,929.83	362	48.6%176 W · 186 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed MODUS	56c	2,346$1,307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,306.72	100	50%50 W · 50 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Yellow Submarine	47c	2,326$1,098 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,227.59	536	52.6%282 W · 254 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed MODUS	55c	2,000$1,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,099.99	197	42.1%83 W · 114 L	-12.6wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-16%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a5e…8fd0backed Yellow Submarine	45c	1,000$450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$550	60	53.3%32 W · 28 L	+3.2wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked MODUS	55c	980.2$539 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$539.11	141	57.4%81 W · 60 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5006…48cabacked Yellow Submarine	46c	750$345 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$405	40	50%20 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed MODUS	26c	721.55$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.6	568	52.5%298 W · 270 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked Yellow Submarine	45c	711.74$320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$391.46	40	37.5%15 W · 25 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed MODUS	55c	580.58$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.32	211	46.9%99 W · 112 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc910…8bbcbacked MODUS	52c	527.36$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273	116	56%65 W · 51 L	+6.1wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea9b…2be5backed Yellow Submarine	47c	520.62$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$275.93	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.2wins	+0.17per pick	54cpaid	+28.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x764a…83d3backed Yellow Submarine	46c	500$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270	56	53.6%30 W · 26 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c27…97c2backed Yellow Submarine	46c	500$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0cc4…1a48backed Yellow Submarine	46c	500$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.54per pick	46cpaid	+117.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc36…d35dbacked Yellow Submarine	46c	500$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dd5…28f2backed Yellow Submarine	46c	500$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb983…20e6backed Yellow Submarine	46c	500$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	54cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa896…4819backed Yellow Submarine	42c	460$193 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$266.8	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-2.1wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x219a…f65bbacked Yellow Submarine	46c	434.78$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234.78	34	35.3%12 W · 22 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc182…1339backed Yellow Submarine	46c	271.74$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$146.74	288	46.5%134 W · 154 L	+5.0wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ad9…0eaebacked MODUS	26c	260$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.6	93	44.1%41 W · 52 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d1d…d8c0backed Yellow Submarine	47c	257.34$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.34	161	52.2%84 W · 77 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x591d…f4dfbacked Yellow Submarine	49c	250$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.5	99	42.4%42 W · 57 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-12%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked MODUS	56c	238.42$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.97	161	47.2%76 W · 85 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed MODUS	54c	234.99$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.89	324	41.7%135 W · 189 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x419b…6ea1backed Yellow Submarine	45c	224.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.08	224	53.1%119 W · 105 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8f7…71d2backed Yellow Submarine	46c	217.39$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.39	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…8e7ebacked Yellow Submarine	22c	216.57$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168.93	338	54.1%183 W · 155 L	+11.7wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked MODUS	55c	212.79$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.04	93	40.9%38 W · 55 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd10f…bef4backed Yellow Submarine	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Yellow Submarine	44c	200.75$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.61	405	34.6%140 W · 265 L	-4.4wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73ae…e665backed MODUS	51c	200.21$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc2b…d422backed MODUS	55c	200$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	148	45.9%68 W · 80 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a2b…9e83backed Yellow Submarine	44c	190.36$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.6	184	46.7%86 W · 98 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3537…3b51backed Yellow Submarine	45c	190.27$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.65	30	50%15 W · 15 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf6…0cbdbacked MODUS	58c	182$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.56	37	43.2%16 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed MODUS	56c	178.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	577	35%202 W · 375 L	-14.0wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa371…eaa5backed Yellow Submarine	48c	170.83$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.83	146	43.8%64 W · 82 L	-8.2wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Yellow Submarine	46c	163.04$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.04	864	51.7%447 W · 417 L	+20.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4228…b838backed MODUS	58c	156.76$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.73	26	50%13 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked MODUS	55c	145$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.42	1,154	47.7%550 W · 604 L	-12.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed Yellow Submarine	45c	141.61$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.89	101	38.6%39 W · 62 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yellow Submarine	69c	113.38$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.46	165	53.3%88 W · 77 L	+6.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x312c…0f42backed Yellow Submarine	45c	111.11$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.11	372	52.7%196 W · 176 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee59…e42abacked Yellow Submarine	17c	107$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.81	288	46.9%135 W · 153 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xce24…6239backed Yellow Submarine	45c	100$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	58	32.8%19 W · 39 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed Yellow Submarine	45c	100$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	513	64.9%333 W · 180 L	+16.4wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeef9…8731backed MODUS	56c	94.99$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.2	259	56.8%147 W · 112 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Yellow Submarine	44c	90.91$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.91	436	47.5%207 W · 229 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2338…27f6backed Yellow Submarine	48c	83.33$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.33	114	44.7%51 W · 63 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda20…cb8dbacked MODUS	51c	81.63$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.63	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-2.3wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x009c…049bbacked Yellow Submarine	49c	81.63$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.63	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24f5…98d2backed Yellow Submarine	70c	78$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.7	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed MODUS	56c	67.13$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.59	96	44.8%43 W · 53 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x787b…86c3backed Yellow Submarine	45c	55$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.25	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-2.2wins	-0.14per pick	52cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd932…af3cbacked Yellow Submarine	45c	49.64$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.3	48	54.2%26 W · 22 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29f9…9de3backed Yellow Submarine	45c	49.64$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.3	125	57.6%72 W · 53 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fcd…42f2backed Yellow Submarine	45c	45$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.75	45	31.1%14 W · 31 L	-5.5wins	-0.12per pick	43cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Yellow Submarine	70c	41.42$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.62	430	67%288 W · 142 L	+31.9wins	+0.07per pick	60cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf437…ff9bbacked Yellow Submarine	45c	40$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	321	48.3%155 W · 166 L	-6.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e43…0306backed Yellow Submarine	46c	40$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.8	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Yellow Submarine	46c	35$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.9	529	50.9%269 W · 260 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e24…b6d5backed Yellow Submarine	46c	32.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.61	210	55.2%116 W · 94 L	+7.8wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x91c4…9deabacked Yellow Submarine	45c	32.25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	8	100%8 W · 0 L	+3.8wins	+0.47per pick	53cpaid	+103.1%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0xbd30…9a01backed Yellow Submarine	64c	31.94$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.5	160	54.4%87 W · 73 L	-5.4wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e47…bdbfbacked Yellow Submarine	68c	30.2$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.66	149	63.1%94 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	63cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9bb…cad6backed Yellow Submarine	45c	25.36$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.95	73	56.2%41 W · 32 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed MODUS	55c	23.87$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.13	395	59%233 W · 162 L	+18.3wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd533…d6a1backed MODUS	51c	21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.71	92	38%35 W · 57 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed MODUS	56c	19.59$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.87	92	48.9%45 W · 47 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5)this page
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsYellow Submarine won
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 WinnerYellow Submarine won
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 WinnerYellow Submarine won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event