TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yellow Submarineof Yellow Submarine, MODUS
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$545,395
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$604,149

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $545,395 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 404 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Yellow Submarine59c64,628$38,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,434.741,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Yellow Submarine45c16,062$7,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,781.0132549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed MODUS43c13,514$5,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,834.5671143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked MODUS32c13,243$4,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,242.0789741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MODUS47c12,001$5,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,630.741,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked MODUS47c12,000$5,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,653.271,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed MODUS48c11,232$5,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,443.641,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed MODUS51c9,855$4,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,988.9371454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked MODUS35c8,224$2,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8831,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Yellow Submarine65c8,000$5,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,802.5580256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Yellow Submarine68c8,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,599.9941944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c43…190dbacked MODUS52c7,643$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked MODUS42c7,286$3,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,074.661,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Yellow Submarine73c6,477$4,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,717.8922340.4%90 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ce6…9469backed MODUS45c6,000$2,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,675.91540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Yellow Submarine72c5,169$3,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,432.3653764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf94f…9adabacked Yellow Submarine61c5,097$3,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,988.593762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed MODUS28c5,002$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.5556852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed MODUS41c4,634$1,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,885.523053.3%16 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+56.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed MODUS31c4,588$1,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,422.287152.1%37 W · 34 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked MODUS32c3,994$1,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,296.0625446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked MODUS39c3,575$1,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,388.8425143.4%109 W · 142 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9679…9315backed Yellow Submarine64c3,489$2,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,261.3116058.8%94 W · 66 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked Yellow Submarine58c3,460$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,459.8612141.3%50 W · 71 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked Yellow Submarine60c3,100$1,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,237.9615050%75 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed MODUS34c3,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02015144.4%67 W · 84 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd56b…342dbacked Yellow Submarine76c2,724$2,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.73850%19 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Yellow Submarine63c2,682$1,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.3645352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Yellow Submarine53c2,634$1,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,229.0254246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18f0…3d5ebacked Yellow Submarine59c2,597$1,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.543644.4%16 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed MODUS40c2,582$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.3843344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed MODUS40c2,544$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.8969132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed MODUS43c2,366$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.1551049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Yellow Submarine65c2,303$1,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.4461456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed Yellow Submarine69c2,238$1,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.7931248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked Yellow Submarine70c2,219$1,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.733867.8%229 W · 109 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3c7…bf04backed Yellow Submarine75c2,219$1,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.4815051.3%77 W · 73 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MODUS39c2,125$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.782,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7020…d655backed Yellow Submarine70c2,095$1,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.1315150.3%76 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Yellow Submarine65c2,052$1,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.930356.4%171 W · 132 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x948a…d1a4backed Yellow Submarine60c1,830$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.7324255%133 W · 109 L+14.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf9f…998bbacked MODUS50c1,715$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.722128.6%6 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-41.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Yellow Submarine67c1,714$1,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.031,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed MODUS43c1,691$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73019251%98 W · 94 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked MODUS45c1,677$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.671,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Yellow Submarine53c1,603$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.8848057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe6f…b760backed Yellow Submarine72c1,571$1,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.4225547.8%122 W · 133 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc694…1171backed MODUS18c1,558$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.94050%20 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed MODUS36c1,508$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.7633041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed MODUS29c1,500$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43581029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed MODUS45c1,482$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.229744.3%43 W · 54 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed MODUS30c1,474$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.9533453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed MODUS29c1,467$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.021,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde90…d417backed Yellow Submarine75c1,350$1,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.86683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick74cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…cc01backed Yellow Submarine69c1,304$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.2110051%51 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x958c…a328backed MODUS33c1,296$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.6928347%133 W · 150 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed Yellow Submarine63c1,269$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.7925359.3%150 W · 103 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a77…e59dbacked MODUS35c1,257$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.2622031.8%70 W · 150 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed MODUS41c1,185$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.1420030.5%61 W · 139 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked MODUS32c1,160$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.8416147.2%76 W · 85 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x450e…4fddbacked Yellow Submarine63c1,152$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.7611758.1%68 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked MODUS22c1,111$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.0799844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed MODUS40c1,106$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.3828341%116 W · 167 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b5…205abacked MODUS54c1,102$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.0331953.9%172 W · 147 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MODUS38c1,101$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.062,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed MODUS39c1,033$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.5760552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0758…9532backed Yellow Submarine51c1,020$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.818437.5%69 W · 115 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed MODUS1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed MODUS30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30088539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Yellow Submarine69c999.99$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31050769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Yellow Submarine43c999.99$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.4951544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed Yellow Submarine78c986.05$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.6220767.1%139 W · 68 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x703e…9828backed MODUS23c975.33$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2207437.8%28 W · 46 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked MODUS52c924.54$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.0558746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked MODUS53c910$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.316746.1%77 W · 90 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked MODUS30c903.94$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.7650850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked Yellow Submarine72c900$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25213251.5%68 W · 64 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca78…b3a8backed MODUS30c888.06$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.951435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0af3…8598backed MODUS30c879.35$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.294136.6%15 W · 26 L-4.4wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe790…698cbacked Yellow Submarine56c875$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3857652.6%40 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb238…4961backed MODUS46c870.55$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.7412548.8%61 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed MODUS52c820.59$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.921,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x87e6…9c8abacked Yellow Submarine49c813.97$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.5612253.3%65 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked MODUS56c800$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44828145.6%128 W · 153 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec54…c7b2backed Yellow Submarine66c795.92$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.8415650.6%79 W · 77 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked MODUS48c782.09$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.611,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1032…4243backed MODUS34c767$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.88520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2785…ce75backed Yellow Submarine71c732.99$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.578934.8%31 W · 58 L-9.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-24.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed MODUS29c719.38$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.6250353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked MODUS55c709.58$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.5713647.1%64 W · 72 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Yellow Submarine66c702.48$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.8417757.6%102 W · 75 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed MODUS32c702.2$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.31,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Yellow Submarine56c700$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30832441.7%135 W · 189 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd92c…dd9abacked Yellow Submarine68c700$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2242352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+21.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5789…6407backed MODUS36c692.89$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.94223.8%10 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-34.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb94…243cbacked Yellow Submarine57c689.25$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick42cpaid-80.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x13ee…01aebacked Yellow Submarine76c688.99$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.86744.8%30 W · 37 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed MODUS44c681.82$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30034051.5%175 W · 165 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Yellow Submarine52c673.08$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.081,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked MODUS34c631.99$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.8817047.1%80 W · 90 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.