TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Marlins vs. Orioles

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Oriolesof Marlins, Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$72,872
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$72,409

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,872 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb083…b3f0backed Orioles56c13,721$7,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,037.0960249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37bb…06e8backed Marlins44c12,532$5,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,514.2925550.6%129 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Orioles56c9,200$5,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,047.9920850%104 W · 104 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ad…208ebacked Marlins45c7,111$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,199.9521740.1%87 W · 130 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Orioles55c4,444$2,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,999.898149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Marlins44c3,909$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,72038949.1%191 W · 198 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Orioles55c3,000$1,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.9995850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Orioles56c2,451$1,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,078.2660451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Marlins45c2,379$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.6553448.9%261 W · 273 L-1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Marlins25c2,015$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50095930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Orioles68c1,892$1,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.3997950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f93…e313backed Marlins47c1,714$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80015543.2%67 W · 88 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Marlins11c1,646$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.796133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Orioles76c1,580$1,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.52,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0229…ea6cbacked Marlins19c1,574$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30441747.2%197 W · 220 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Marlins44c1,514$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.1638249.5%189 W · 193 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x822e…d3f0backed Marlins9c1,127$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.65425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+177.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Marlins12c1,102$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.579,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Marlins46c999.98$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.991,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Marlins43c999.95$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.9893240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Orioles55c953.97$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.291,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb61f…9958backed Marlins7c863.56$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6027213.6%37 W · 235 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Marlins44c861.7$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.1571751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Orioles53c654.13$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.445,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb142…cd11backed Marlins47c532$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.7118748.1%90 W · 97 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Marlins44c502.67$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.672,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae1c…5126backed Orioles80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick78cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Marlins30c499.99$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1523119.4%6 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-6.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd28e…aae3backed Marlins43c451.96$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.3444443%191 W · 253 L+21.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x497c…d54ebacked Marlins45c450.03$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.5224248.8%118 W · 124 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Orioles56c448$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.1291749.9%458 W · 459 L-3.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f91…fc95backed Marlins45c444.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003562.9%22 W · 13 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+30.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x25cc…3601backed Orioles57c435.1$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.0910550.5%53 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Marlins46c430.7$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.931,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Orioles54c420.37$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.3799951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ad…d11dbacked Orioles54c416.52$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.614050.7%71 W · 69 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…42c9backed Marlins46c324.3$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.1840152.4%210 W · 191 L+0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05a4…1e85backed Orioles74c307.73$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8080680%645 W · 161 L+173.6wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+34.7%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Marlins43c270.6$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.361,20344.2%532 W · 671 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Orioles56c262.55$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.5243247.2%204 W · 228 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x898b…8d76backed Orioles57c239.49$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.989947.5%47 W · 52 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x424c…6441backed Orioles57c233.33$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.33250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Marlins5c228$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.571,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb16…96b5backed Marlins44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008366.3%55 W · 28 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7eaf…e782backed Marlins44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002123.8%5 W · 16 L-4.1wins-0.19per pick43cpaid-48.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Marlins45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Marlins45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Marlins44c210$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.41,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Marlins24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Orioles57c180.7$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.770946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Marlins44c175.93$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.985047.4%403 W · 447 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41e3…1962backed Orioles57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4457545.9%264 W · 311 L+0.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6edc…18cebacked Orioles57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4431356.2%176 W · 137 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe98b…780dbacked Orioles57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4415151%77 W · 74 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1578…fa2cbacked Orioles57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.442152.4%11 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Marlins44c169.95$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.781,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x670d…fbe9backed Marlins44c150$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666747.8%32 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdbf…c88ebacked Marlins40c139.88$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6517930.2%54 W · 125 L-9.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Orioles76c124.44$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.514150.4%71 W · 70 L-12.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xbf46…3c69backed Marlins44c122.07$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.71450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x605a…c6debacked Orioles79c115$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.212267.2%82 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ea…e15cbacked Marlins44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5022351.6%115 W · 108 L+16.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+16.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7879…4345backed Orioles55c112.77$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.2618848.4%91 W · 97 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93c5…5b53backed Marlins46c112.44$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Marlins44c109.04$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.989245.7%42 W · 50 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a44…d80abacked Orioles55c104.71$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1219742.6%84 W · 113 L-13.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x95ec…4b7ebacked Marlins23c104.35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2438743.2%167 W · 220 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93eb…2108backed Marlins45c103.56$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Marlins44c102.27$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4578454.5%427 W · 357 L+19.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Orioles54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4649450%247 W · 247 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Marlins46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2269…1a89backed Marlins45c97.96$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7526…fb52backed Marlins45c96.98$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.64250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac44…2468backed Marlins47c96.91$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5530%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Marlins44c94.61$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.631,07846.3%499 W · 579 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe027…14a3backed Marlins45c90.96$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9330%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17c1…97dfbacked Marlins45c88.31$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0d8…134bbacked Marlins45c87.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.59475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1668…ebebbacked Orioles54c87.35$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Orioles56c87$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.282,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae47…aebebacked Marlins13c85.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.87922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick49cpaid-64.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4b6b…5ca5backed Orioles57c84.95$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.53333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc818…30b9backed Orioles57c84.89$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd327…c74bbacked Orioles57c84.33$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7897…ea9abacked Marlins47c83.72$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.35250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfafb…d523backed Orioles57c83.35$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.84333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b3a…e780backed Orioles57c83.19$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.77425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfce5…ce97backed Orioles57c80.44$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.59366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+27.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ba…6ac8backed Orioles57c80.05$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.663100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+92.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x985c…e5d2backed Marlins44c79.55$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3554455.1%300 W · 244 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73c2…7175backed Marlins45c79.09$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe53…b190backed Marlins47c78.23$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf789…7702backed Orioles57c76.72$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d2f…64e9backed Orioles54c74.83$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe872…d471backed Orioles57c74.09$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.86450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0c0…6576backed Marlins45c74.04$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3230%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x40d7…dd52backed Orioles57c73.32$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.53633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-35.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x380a…7505backed Marlins45c73.06$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+16.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4667…ba10backed Marlins23c69.27$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167345.2%33 W · 40 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f96…3839backed Orioles57c67.63$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.082100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.