Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4affce20a0a83a6ef81676f1de226f5cf53209abed64acd6b4fdb1e42bf436f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 51c | 537.49$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.14 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 47c | 433.77$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.76 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 51c | 253.71$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.29 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 66c | 238.6$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.03 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 197.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 156.91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 155.8$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.01 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 44c | 143.49$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…f3cebacked No | 21c | 132.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 45c | 124$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.05 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 36c | 117.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 22c | 115.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 110$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 16c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 78c | 100.72$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a592backed Yes | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 37c | 72.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 52c | 65.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 30c | 62.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 60.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 66c | 58.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 46c | 50.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 51c | 47.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 46c | 43.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 43.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 49c | 40.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 39.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 71c | 35.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 74c | 32.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 35c | 32.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 39c | 31.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 64c | 30.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 59c | 29.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 41c | 29.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d2…e95cbacked Yes | 79c | 29.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 48c | 28.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 65c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed Yes | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 24.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 53c | 22.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 50c | 20.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 50c | 20.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 50c | 20.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 54c | 19.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 75c | 17.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 60c | 17.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 70c | 15.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.