Brisbane Roar FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b528c5cdf884f9adacbeb11ce7f0f539f68a8785d82bbf03e70126926958d23

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $30,004
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $34,643

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,004 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf658…655ebacked Under	51c	4,871$2,470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,469.71	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	-3.6wins	-0.10per pick	57cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	73c	2,201$1,603 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,602.71	988	44.4%439 W · 549 L	-11.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over	16c	1,469$241 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,228.16	466	44.8%209 W · 257 L	-23.0wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over	23c	1,380$315 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,064.51	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+3.3wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+41.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Over	22c	1,119$246 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$872.9	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+56.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	52c	1,080$565 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$515	478	50.8%243 W · 235 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21db…2a42backed Over	26c	952.81$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$702.81	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over	71c	882.92$627 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$256.05	37	73%27 W · 10 L	+6.3wins	+0.17per pick	56cpaid	+30.9%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Over	45c	744.69$336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$408.21	151	40.4%61 W · 90 L	-5.5wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6077…3231backed Under	29c	689.66$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-3.9wins	-0.20per pick	47cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over	29c	634.88$184 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$451.19	72	54.2%39 W · 33 L	+9.2wins	+0.13per pick	41cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	61+0.09 edge/pick
0xa529…677ebacked Under	78c	620.85$484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$484.26	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	71cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cca…08a9backed Over	16c	600$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$504	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+34.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf070…57b8backed Over	17c	588.24$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$488.24	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+2.3wins	+0.15per pick	42cpaid	+206.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	69c	550.45$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382.33	130	49.2%64 W · 66 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe02…dababacked Under	47c	532.64$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.26	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.16per pick	50cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabce…2f87backed Over	45c	519.99$234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$286	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under	56c	489.25$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.98	198	49%97 W · 101 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3248…8ba9backed Over	44c	449.99$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$252	21	66.7%14 W · 7 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	59cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf39d…a5e9backed Under	78c	333.33$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.7wins	-0.30per pick	53cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over	31c	333.32$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$231.61	83	53%44 W · 39 L	+8.1wins	+0.10per pick	43cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	51c	324.89$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158.89	309	54.7%169 W · 140 L	+8.1wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over	30c	322.2$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$224.22	88	53.4%47 W · 41 L	+8.0wins	+0.09per pick	44cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8230…5121backed Over	13c	254.71$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$221.6	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.12per pick	17cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Over	30c	250$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$175	81	29.6%24 W · 57 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7299…31f3backed Over	44c	240.52$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.52	45	46.7%21 W · 24 L	+4.4wins	+0.10per pick	37cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e52…00f5backed Over	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+2.1wins	+0.35per pick	48cpaid	+87.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4281…a56fbacked Over	44c	199.97$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.98	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6945…729cbacked Over	51c	196.07$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.07	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f2b…d743backed Over	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	48cpaid	-32%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under	56c	160.71$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	80	48.8%39 W · 41 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over	13c	150$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130	77	39%30 W · 47 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54d5…77d4backed Under	73c	140$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.2	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.11per pick	66cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd41b…f231backed Under	14c	132.33$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1792…118abacked Over	37c	107.1$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.12	43	53.5%23 W · 20 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee5b…dac8backed Over	51c	101$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.49	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.24per pick	60cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x96b4…c2f1backed Over	12c	100$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88	12	75%9 W · 3 L	+4.1wins	+0.34per pick	41cpaid	+117.1%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5a04…ea4cbacked Under	52c	99.99$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b6b…ec86backed Over	48c	93.67$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.71	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.62per pick	38cpaid	+178.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeeaf…7231backed Over	55c	90.18$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.18	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.38per pick	62cpaid	+62.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x46d2…6805backed Under	65c	90$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.48	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	-4.8wins	-0.18per pick	53cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Over	53c	88.63$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.89	69	58%40 W · 29 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Under	34c	87.44$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	5	40%2 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9637…a576backed Over	31c	80.09$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.09	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	34cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Over	52c	76.92$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.92	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Under	29c	69.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	44cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb5d…d917backed Under	48c	62.33$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.15per pick	53cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	50c	59.44$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.91	349	37.8%132 W · 217 L	-13.0wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4739…a1c1backed Under	51c	58.82$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Over	51c	50.4$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.66	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Under	73c	50$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.5	58	53.4%31 W · 27 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed Over	27c	50$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.5	52	44.2%23 W · 29 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7203…795abacked Over	49c	46.67$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under	69c	45.1$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.34	324	53.1%172 W · 152 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49c5…b169backed Over	30c	43.54$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.67	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+42.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44b8…a2d7backed Over	48c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	82	47.6%39 W · 43 L	+4.5wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+22.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bb5…a518backed Over	53c	40.09$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.79	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-3.2wins	-0.19per pick	54cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8a81…a86bbacked Over	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	50	66%33 W · 17 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	66cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed Under	70c	31$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.7	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	69cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Under	71c	28.17$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	58.3%21 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca9…0898backed Under	71c	28.16$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.17per pick	57cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe697…708fbacked Under	72c	27.78$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	49	38.8%19 W · 30 L	-9.7wins	-0.20per pick	59cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0x819b…6a57backed Under	72c	26.39$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	-3.4wins	-0.16per pick	69cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under	71c	20.53$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.48	52	55.8%29 W · 23 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over	54c	20.48$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.48	25	64%16 W · 9 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	59cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd51…ce69backed Under	70c	16$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.12	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Brisbane Roar FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 3.5this page
Brisbane Roar FC vs. Melbourne City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Brisbane Roar FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Brisbane Roar FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Brisbane Roar FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Spread: Brisbane Roar FC (-1.5)Melbourne City FC won
Spread: Brisbane Roar FC (-2.5)Melbourne City FC won
Spread: Melbourne City FC (-1.5)Brisbane Roar FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Brisbane Roar FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event