NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b684921a6bec30fc274db8322bac884211624783b94122aa7df561a13dfd845
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Over | 54c | 3,960$2,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,821.7 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 10c | 2,347$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.11 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…4a51backed Under | 46c | 1,435$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 130 | 63.8%83 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…5366backed Over | 53c | 1,339$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.54 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…6f22backed Under | 46c | 1,284$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.56 | 172 | 50%86 W · 86 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a90…7bf8backed Over | 57c | 1,171$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.53 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Under | 47c | 950$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.5 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 46c | 802.48$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.14 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Under | 46c | 439.13$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 304 | 52.6%160 W · 144 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…36fdbacked Under | 47c | 389.44$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.04 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Under | 27c | 124$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Under | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 30c | 81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…a045backed Under | 29c | 81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8b…b796backed Over | 72c | 68.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 34c | 65.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…bd06backed Over | 71c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Under | 26c | 48.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed Over | 73c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…e26cbacked Over | 73c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…bdecbacked Over | 71c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -7.2wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Over | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Over | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce01…5c2abacked Over | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…ea69backed Over | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c1…090dbacked Over | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed Over | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Over | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Over | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…2635backed Over | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Jazz won
- Jazz vs. GrizzliesJazz won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 238.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 239.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 241.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 243.5Over won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-7.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-8.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.