NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 243.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bc24aa16d24cee98e5f39ebea1cc9218b77c1f26c156a43bd530d1094310fa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 28,547$13,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,653.9 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Under | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,199.99 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 52c | 9,500$4,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,940 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Over | 50c | 7,347$3,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,690.65 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…7253backed Over | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,549.98 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…498abacked Under | 51c | 4,684$2,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,395 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…9297backed Under | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 169 | 42%71 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x318e…6373backed Under | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Over | 50c | 2,574$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.65 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 2,400$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…5862backed Over | 50c | 1,690$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under | 51c | 1,471$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 606.16$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.16 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 45c | 559.1$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.59 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Over | 55c | 544.28$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.93 | 156 | 56.4%88 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Over | 50c | 504$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 500$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.5 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 49c | 378.61$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.09 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 48c | 238.09$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.81 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d55…3ea8backed Under | 51c | 195.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 120.59$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c0…6aa1backed Over | 55c | 111.27$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 57cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Over | 51c | 106$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4615…5866backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5476…9649backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.42per pick | 53cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked Under | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 48c | 59.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 19c | 57.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…ed59backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 46c | 37.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0e…7e25backed Over | 55c | 30.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 243.5this page
- 1H Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Jazz won
- Jazz vs. GrizzliesJazz won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 238.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 239.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 241.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5Over won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-7.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-8.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.