NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Grizzlies: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bd3b41fd11770e123e3d0decd912b83d339d737bab775c23e50e0498a424d75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Jazz, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Grizzlies | 45c | 2,176$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.82 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309f…9282backed Jazz | 56c | 2,018$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Grizzlies | 64c | 148$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Grizzlies | 64c | 137$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Jazz | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Jazz | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Grizzlies | 64c | 95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Grizzlies | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Grizzlies | 64c | 81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Grizzlies | 64c | 76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c1…090dbacked Jazz | 36c | 49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…e845backed Jazz | 36c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…bd9fbacked Jazz | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x06b1…614cbacked Jazz | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Grizzlies | 52c | 42.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed Jazz | 36c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Grizzlies | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063c…d642backed Jazz | 35c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…7893backed Jazz | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…d17fbacked Jazz | 36c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Jazz | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed Jazz | 36c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…8deabacked Jazz | 36c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a1…be8bbacked Jazz | 36c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Jazz | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Grizzlies | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…ddaebacked Jazz | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked Jazz | 36c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Jazz won
- Jazz vs. GrizzliesJazz won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 238.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 239.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 241.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 243.5Over won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-7.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-8.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.