MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b8716a90005e782ad296d0d1626e73f1c77d8e8cca42796ca8e2dcec1b008ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 41c | 8,557$3,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,066.7 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 8,000$4,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,880 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 30c | 2,603$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.05 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed San Francisco Giants | 71c | 2,141$1,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.27 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 1,258$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.25 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 23c | 689.53$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.24 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 634.91$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 633.44$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.86 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed San Francisco Giants | 70c | 459.97$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.99 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed San Francisco Giants | 70c | 459.97$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.99 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed San Francisco Giants | 40c | 431.28$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.43 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 268.84$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.99 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked San Francisco Giants | 34c | 204.47$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.98 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…cf6fbacked San Francisco Giants | 65c | 196.27$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.27 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 187.69$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.14 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 119.01$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.78 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked San Francisco Giants | 32c | 85.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.07 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 27c | 84.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Francisco Giants | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked San Francisco Giants | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 549 | 51.2%281 W · 268 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x692c…aadebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 29c | 54.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 48.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 1,040 | 51.8%539 W · 501 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 39.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed San Francisco Giants | 49c | 39.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 39.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed San Francisco Giants | 38c | 36.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 36.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 69c | 34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 31.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 25.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 22.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c25…6bbcbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 20.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 199 | 60.3%120 W · 79 L | +21.9wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco GiantsArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.