MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8f611fed8380b10e9afcc137dfd12a5a62f88a0a4b1e733bc48d5acf887c942
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 8,030$3,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,589.42 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 8,000$4,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,600 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 6,714$3,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,602.31 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 5,164$1,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,190.48 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked San Francisco Giants | 45c | 4,627$2,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,082.08 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 2,985$1,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800.76 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 2,647$1,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.61 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 2,632$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,488.74 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9e…3cb9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 1,444$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.23 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 1,171$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.12 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 968.17$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.12 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 739.54$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.51 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 623.75$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ee…2e1dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 542.27$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.94 | 129 | 40.3%52 W · 77 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 513.61$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.44 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 319.95$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.37 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fa…3262backed San Francisco Giants | 51c | 208.6$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.34 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 35c | 177$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.05 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 162.39$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.06 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 162.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.02 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 154.72$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.02 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 154.72$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.02 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 115.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.21 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 112$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.44 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 112$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.44 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 110.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.07 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 110$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 103.07$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 88.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 63.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 54.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 50.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 38.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 37.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 36.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 35.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 34.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…5da3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 33.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +113.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 32.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 73c | 23.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…5710backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 23.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 22.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed San Francisco Giants | 68c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…4f8ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed San Francisco Giants | 66c | 17.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…8cebbacked San Francisco Giants | 78c | 13.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco GiantsArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.