TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,748
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,540

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,748 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Under54c40,057$21,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,704.2714252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Over46c14,311$6,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,669.22,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over48c7,528$3,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,884.1312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under45c6,806$3,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,085.7811,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over44c2,599$1,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,454.43,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over50c2,300$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.439,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Over45c2,113$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,162.153,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under52c1,794$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.9310,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over59c1,346$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.698,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Over48c1,237$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.641,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Over47c1,194$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.971,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under46c1,047$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.758,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeef3…0547backed Under50c1,007$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50330%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Over45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5501,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over45c963.33$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.831,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under56c898.99$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.441,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Over46c800$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43285952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over45c798$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.93,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Over45c779$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.4527249.3%134 W · 138 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over45c768.32$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.658,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Over45c595$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.252,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Over56c592.93$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.315,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Over45c492.54$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.1789053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over45c477.85$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.826,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over45c444.8$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.182,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Under50c379.28$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.8479255.6%440 W · 352 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Under48c342.6$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.1497050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb722…1098backed Under44c321.57$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.381844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Over44c304$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.2423140.3%93 W · 138 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under54c296.3$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16079543%342 W · 453 L-3.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10094648.9%463 W · 483 L+4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Under54c222.69$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.2550153.5%268 W · 233 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Under54c221.11$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.911,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Under44c180.84$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.571,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over65c179.99$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.335,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under60c170$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.91,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Under42c157.3$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.81,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under59c153.32$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.056,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Over46c153$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.621,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under32c146.17$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.225,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Under44c143.84$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2973949.8%368 W · 371 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over46c113.14$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.616,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d5…11f0backed Over45c111.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.111643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1980…3340backed Under58c108.2$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4232450.9%165 W · 159 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Over39c107.32$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.471,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under36c107.08$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.992,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under54c91.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.514,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86a0…bb4ebacked Over45c88.89$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.896746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x156e…cf6fbacked Over75c78.63$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.664057.5%23 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x891d…b19fbacked Under43c78.51$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6412746.5%59 W · 68 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Over44c71.18$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.861,01450.4%511 W · 503 L+52.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Over45c70$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.399744.1%440 W · 557 L-38.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Under60c68.77$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.032,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa02e…60d0backed Under64c63.83$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.855945.8%27 W · 32 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc185…7020backed Over44c62.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353860.5%23 W · 15 L+5.0wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+41%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Over51c62.12$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.541,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Over45c55.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6267453%357 W · 317 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x260b…aa9ebacked Under40c55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8712555.2%69 W · 56 L+9.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over46c53.37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.611,14948.9%562 W · 587 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1c…0be3backed Over47c53.19$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.196145.9%28 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Under62c49.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.442,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf58…2bf4backed Over46c47.87$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0140148.1%193 W · 208 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under49c46.66$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.024,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa05a…4635backed Over50c44.31$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9583053%440 W · 390 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Under52c42.63$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.172437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Over45c40.1$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.061,06249.2%523 W · 539 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over58c36.78$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5946952.5%246 W · 223 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a84…4406backed Under41c36.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153464.7%22 W · 12 L+5.2wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+26.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed Under29c36.35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4535341.1%145 W · 208 L-16.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Over45c36$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.878155.6%434 W · 347 L+28.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Over55c35.23$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0243043%185 W · 245 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Over51c30.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7158054.5%316 W · 264 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb556…b5e5backed Under45c27.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.455044%22 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Under58c25.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.591,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff97…7350backed Over50c24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under54c23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.421,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde1b…5710backed Under60c21.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8410145.5%46 W · 55 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3894…decfbacked Under50c20.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1637551.2%192 W · 183 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Under54c19.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.870744.7%316 W · 391 L-22.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ae3…93c3backed Over63c17.94$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.66065%39 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.