MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb7c4f29eec706d3c7d224d5bc803f290c5465049a312d0dcbeac527025dbdb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 1,129$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.56 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 920.92$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.39 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants | 67c | 395.44$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.25 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 355.84$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.61 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 348$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.64 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked San Francisco Giants | 57c | 307.33$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.51 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 299.67$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.47 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 281.3$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.16 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 275$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 28c | 269.27$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.36 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked San Francisco Giants | 37c | 215.58$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.27 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 210$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 29c | 130$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Francisco Giants | 49c | 120.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4c…ad1bbacked San Francisco Giants | 33c | 72.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 64.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 62.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed San Francisco Giants | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked San Francisco Giants | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed San Francisco Giants | 42c | 35.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 69c | 34.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked San Francisco Giants | 41c | 33.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa06…74c3backed San Francisco Giants | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a84…4406backed San Francisco Giants | 68c | 22.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed San Francisco Giants | 68c | 21.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco GiantsArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.