Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b933790525cc6d76bec043e1bb5cc95f4dcd73ccf6ff77f36cb8c3033bc7755
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 47c | 874.25$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.11 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 54c | 861.13$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.13 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 28c | 335.64$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.17 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 73c | 295.01$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 7c | 254.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.63 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 77c | 243.02$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes | 61c | 229.62$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.91 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 45c | 214.74$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.08 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed No | 55c | 182.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 182.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.43 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 169.32$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 55c | 160$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 7c | 152.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 145.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 45c | 145$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.23 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 14c | 139.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.18 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 136$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 68c | 127.94$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…05a3backed Yes | 49c | 115.86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 86.82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 67c | 76.21$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 53c | 70.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 66.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 34c | 63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661a…e9e8backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7510…6cb0backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67d9…1d99backed No | 34c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 70c | 45.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 79c | 45.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd55…1076backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 76c | 38.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 55c | 37.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…3368backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 79c | 32.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed Yes | 44c | 30.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 42c | 29.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 45c | 28.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 70c | 23.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…bc5cbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b62…b6a4backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 71c | 15.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 14?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.