Lol · resolved market

Games Total: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ba284eb101fffe29e83eea3201759ad977a8cff75e97646b40c7193219fc89b

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 28, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $19,867
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $19,809

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,867 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Lol
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9702…1042backed Over	70c	6,251$4,397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,396.9	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	58cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Under	29c	5,247$1,521 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,726.05	37	62.2%23 W · 14 L	+6.8wins	+0.18per pick	44cpaid	+33.5%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed Under	30c	5,121$1,536 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,584.47	1,035	47.2%489 W · 546 L	+26.2wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe634…fae1backed Over	66c	4,795$3,144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,144	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-3.1wins	-0.35per pick	46cpaid	-83.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa198…9601backed Under	35c	4,790$1,676 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,113.5	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	39cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81ea…8b9abacked Over	70c	1,400$980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$980	214	56.5%121 W · 93 L	+9.4wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8658…41c6backed Over	70c	845.98$594 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$593.52	38	63.2%24 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	65cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0093…be88backed Over	70c	714.29$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	174	54.6%95 W · 79 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0775…b0c5backed Under	45c	612.7$274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$338.93	255	47.8%122 W · 133 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	32c	584.22$186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$398.53	1,224	48.3%591 W · 633 L	+26.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed Over	65c	444.62$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289	190	42.1%80 W · 110 L	-6.7wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4445…09a3backed Over	73c	366.23$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.85	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.15per pick	61cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Under	31c	355.37$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$243.49	443	35.4%157 W · 286 L	+13.9wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7e4…2a20backed Under	31c	355$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.95	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-17%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c5a…acc3backed Over	69c	355$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.95	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Under	28c	288.28$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$206.32	261	44.1%115 W · 146 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed Over	68c	279.41$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	240	41.3%99 W · 141 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Under	30c	275$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.5	62	35.5%22 W · 40 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc1a…6049backed Under	30c	266.67$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.67	82	40.2%33 W · 49 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-13%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x96a2…d77abacked Over	71c	211.27$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	62cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd55…c9bfbacked Over	37c	200$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	31cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xabe5…d99abacked Over	73c	196.19$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.79	49	46.9%23 W · 26 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Under	28c	150$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108	1,241	34.7%431 W · 810 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Over	68c	146.99$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.95	352	23.9%84 W · 268 L	+8.6wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4b…69debacked Over	71c	140.85$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,048	46.1%483 W · 565 L	-43.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fa6…dbd6backed Over	75c	133.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	560	60.4%338 W · 222 L	-20.9wins	-0.04per pick	64cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed Over	72c	105$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.6	397	49.1%195 W · 202 L	-5.5wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6515…3d8ebacked Over	71c	100$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	25	48%12 W · 13 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8b8…61dcbacked Over	70c	100$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	521	51.8%270 W · 251 L	-10.5wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba74…e022backed Over	58c	99.97$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.98	102	63.7%65 W · 37 L	+4.2wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Over	55c	75.69$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.63	1,599	46.8%748 W · 851 L	-48.1wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ffc…6cf2backed Over	68c	73.53$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	83	55.4%46 W · 37 L	-8.2wins	-0.10per pick	65cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xed6d…d964backed Over	68c	73.53$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	83	26.5%22 W · 61 L	-7.6wins	-0.09per pick	36cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c88…5463backed Over	69c	72.46$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8034…2463backed Over	69c	72.46$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	68	64.7%44 W · 24 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0d1…b169backed Over	71c	70.42$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.15per pick	72cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x801d…e649backed Over	69c	69$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.61	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.7wins	-0.58per pick	58cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Under	29c	60$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.6	541	29.9%162 W · 379 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4894…a083backed Over	71c	60$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.6	42	64.3%27 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	63cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6436…aa37backed Under	29c	51.5$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.57	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6b2…4951backed Over	76c	50$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	28	67.9%19 W · 9 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	63cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05f1…1744backed Over	66c	48.17$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-3.3wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7795…17aabacked Over	68c	45$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.6	168	50%84 W · 84 L	-13.6wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x88ed…8300backed Over	49c	40.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c33…9ac6backed Over	50c	40.19$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.15per pick	43cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca62…41eebacked Over	70c	40$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	45	66.7%30 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	68cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa596…ce69backed Over	70c	39.56$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.69	81	56.8%46 W · 35 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over	69c	35.98$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.83	1,606	17.5%281 W · 1,325 L	-245.0wins	-0.15per pick	33cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd641…0635backed Over	62c	30$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	68	48.5%33 W · 35 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b59…7155backed Over	68c	30$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	23	73.9%17 W · 6 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	65cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0d1…461cbacked Over	73c	30$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.9	12	75%9 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	75cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a36…74b8backed Over	69c	29.12$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-3.5wins	-0.11per pick	58cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x58e0…ebecbacked Over	71c	29$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.59	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	-3.2wins	-0.08per pick	59cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6de…6f5ebacked Over	69c	28.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	54	37%20 W · 34 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51c3…7551backed Over	73c	27.4$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	75cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76ef…f934backed Over	75c	26.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	52	63.5%33 W · 19 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	66cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4768…9117backed Over	66c	25.68$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.05	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.17per pick	67cpaid	-32%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f6a…a9f8backed Over	61c	24.59$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	67	59.7%40 W · 27 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x644f…c5e9backed Over	70c	21.43$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.22per pick	72cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaabd…54fcbacked Over	74c	20.27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	65cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fa8…9938backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+26.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf88b…0ed2backed Over	70c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	113	54%61 W · 52 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc744…955cbacked Over	69c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.7	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-2.7wins	-0.53per pick	74cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2439…886dbacked Under	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.9wins	+0.27per pick	44cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbeaa…e2d0backed Over	73c	15.07$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	127	52.8%67 W · 60 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Games Total: O/U 3.5this page
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5)Top Esports won
Game Handicap: TES (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5)Top Esports won
Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL PlayoffsTop Esports won
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 WinnerTop Esports won
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 WinnerTop Esports won
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 WinnerTop Esports won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Games Total: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event