Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bd372264edf5f34bb83e9e375f7384db705fcd509aadbc89a41fe89cfedb2ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 2c | 1,575$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 3c | 1,275$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,242.38 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 2c | 758.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.63 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 7c | 451.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.91 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 4c | 422.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.42 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 3c | 418.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.62 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…b441backed No | 33c | 408.79$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.69 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 366.39$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.86 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 6c | 340.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.33 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 256.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 32c | 243$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 238.85$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.64 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 5c | 211.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.73 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…c85dbacked Yes | 5c | 203.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.15 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 34c | 188.72$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.73 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 6c | 186.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.67 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 9c | 185.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.59 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 11c | 180$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.72 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 29c | 179.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.23 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 8c | 179.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.26 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 8c | 172.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.39 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 36c | 168.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf529…3ee9backed Yes | 9c | 166.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.7 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 163.81$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.68 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 59c | 154.78$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 8c | 151.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa3…c48ebacked Yes | 7c | 150.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.96 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 39c | 144.62$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 9c | 144.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.51 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 59c | 135.38$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 124.6$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 68c | 124.04$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 31c | 108.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.65 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 13c | 99.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.38 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1a…639dbacked Yes | 20c | 93.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.77 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 38cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 90$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 47c | 83.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 54c | 77.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 57.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x46d7…7c87backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 69cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 52c | 46.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 67c | 45.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 46c | 42.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 65c | 28.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 59c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 68c | 24.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 16.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.