Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x896f139267ffac6d1b1255673d1a778b782cbad34ae5d1999a8c0e99cc6c43c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 337.46$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.24 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5398…ceb0backed No | 36c | 295.06$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.06 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +10.6wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 20c | 246.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.67 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked No | 67c | 195.88$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.04 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…12b4backed No | 40c | 174.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.32 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.1wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked No | 62c | 173.88$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 31c | 164.71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.03 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 67c | 141.98$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5e…dbfdbacked Yes | 39c | 137.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 128.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 33c | 120$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes | 33c | 118.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 112$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 65c | 111.19$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 45c | 109.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 109$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad6…29f2backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 97.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5154…aa32backed No | 31c | 96.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.52 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed No | 52c | 96.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 91.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 37c | 85.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 38c | 83.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb005…146dbacked No | 49c | 81.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 67c | 80.92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 78.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…e75ebacked Yes | 66c | 75.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 39c | 73.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1a…639dbacked Yes | 70c | 71.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 38cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 67c | 70.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 47c | 67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 67c | 66.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 57c | 64.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 54.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab6…f3debacked No | 69c | 53.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 62c | 52.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 32c | 50.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 70c | 42.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 34c | 37.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 39c | 37.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef1c…f2fdbacked Yes | 50c | 37.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 36.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 40c | 36.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 39c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 63c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1118…bba7backed Yes | 70c | 30.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 41c | 30.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 34c | 29.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 29.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 55c | 28.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 42c | 28.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9074…ea32backed No | 70c | 26.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 59c | 25.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0a…a70bbacked Yes | 62c | 24.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 47c | 22.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 51c | 21.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 68c | 21.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 51c | 21.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 58c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 63c | 19.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 18.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked No | 70c | 16.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 15.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.