Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x918dda5a34f01283334b7d482e4a1682a840b91c198793531efda65a29d0c118
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x161c…9f62backed Yes | 1c | 1,019$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f9…8739backed Yes | 23c | 999.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 2c | 950.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.45 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x269f…5a20backed Yes | 2c | 564.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 47c | 547.16$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 2c | 541.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.99 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 73c | 469.34$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.68 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…845bbacked No | 16c | 462.53$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.95 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 396.92$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.67 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 356.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 45c | 341.29$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 37c | 271.64$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.85 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 13c | 269.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.24 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 267.17$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 40c | 256.75$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.84 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 238.34$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.43 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 50c | 230.03$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.92 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 66c | 200.88$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.73 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 67c | 197.85$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.07 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 69c | 190.42$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 46c | 189$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.18 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 188.68$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 38c | 187.25$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.46 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 15c | 181.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.51 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 52c | 175.49$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.7 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 66c | 169.24$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.04 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 37c | 154.24$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 10c | 151.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…b441backed Yes | 7c | 145.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5398…ceb0backed No | 36c | 138.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.91 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +10.6wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 52c | 133.63$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.08 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 130$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 124.6$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…12b4backed No | 62c | 123.48$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.1wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xef1a…319dbacked No | 33c | 116.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.39 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 42c | 110.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 34c | 109.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 45c | 105.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.78 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 28c | 104.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 49c | 104$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 99.55$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 49c | 97.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 47c | 96.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 48c | 93.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 67c | 93.16$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 52c | 85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 47c | 84.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 45c | 78.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 75.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 28c | 74.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 51c | 72.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 42c | 70.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 46c | 65.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 46c | 62.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9074…ea32backed Yes | 36c | 61.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 33c | 57.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 52c | 56.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 58c | 56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1c…f2fdbacked Yes | 48c | 54.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 52c | 54.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 49c | 53.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 45c | 51.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 47c | 49.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed No | 63c | 47.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d02…d900backed No | 62c | 44.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 43.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb005…146dbacked No | 65c | 42.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 42c | 42.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 54c | 42.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 61c | 41.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 35c | 40.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84d…3307backed Yes | 40c | 38.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 51c | 38.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 54c | 37.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 50c | 36.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 59c | 33.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 66c | 33.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63bd…aff2backed Yes | 37c | 32.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 62c | 29.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…462ebacked No | 52c | 28.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 69c | 28.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd61f…b794backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 22.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 52c | 20.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.