Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c15a51894ce20dc27e61793260d515606f14bb485bbe2346a86b38b9657e612
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4dce…ea78backed No | 18c | 1,417$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 60c | 1,057$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.99 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 72c | 423.22$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.61 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 17c | 399.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 18c | 380.08$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 24c | 365.5$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 67c | 361.36$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 40c | 350$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 53c | 278.48$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.29 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 41c | 268.81$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.91 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 255.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 43c | 232.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 19c | 227.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 35c | 220$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 63c | 204.92$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 191.44$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 162.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 78c | 155.97$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 27c | 142.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 40c | 141$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 28c | 126.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 78c | 122.89$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 119$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 42c | 117.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 73c | 114.79$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 43c | 97.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 30c | 92.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 31c | 91.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 34c | 72.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 79c | 71.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 31c | 64.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 49c | 64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 21c | 63.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x34dd…7961backed Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 25c | 62.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 31c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 34c | 56.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 44c | 56.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 34c | 56.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 32c | 55.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 30c | 53.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 44c | 50.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 78c | 50.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 76c | 43.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed No | 40c | 39.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d20…8770backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…4f19backed No | 41c | 35.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 43c | 34.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 66c | 31.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7d…06e3backed Yes | 79c | 30.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…db0ebacked Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b6…6c51backed Yes | 46c | 29.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 55c | 27.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 41c | 26.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed Yes | 41c | 26.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 65c | 25.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.